Oil was below $60, too low for the business. US/Israel were prepping for the second round with Iran so they push a narrative about fentanyl or whatever and then go in with their new heart attacks and pants-pooping sonic weapon and snatch Maduro. Delcy gets undermined as a sell-out so she can't rally Venezuelans. Oil promptly went back above $60 and going forward they can turn that tap off and on to keep the supply and prices where they want them. Venezuela is 20% of the world supply -- Hormuz is the path for a different 20%. If Hormuz closes you open the Venezuela tap. Different grade of oil but they will make it work longterm.
The Israelis and others convince DJT that Iran is primed for regime change with no invasion necessary. Kill the leadership, arm the Kurds, unleash the confederates, rally the populace and install Pahlavi. Return the diasporas, etc.
The CIA is a rebrand and expansion of the ONI. Control of ports, convert ops, fostering opposition and extremist groups, infilitration of decision making bodies and banking systems. The plan sold to DJT was never to invade Iran, eg 'the people will rise up and no invasion will be necessary.'
Iran has been prepping for this war for 47 years. Knew who they would be fighting. Knew our systems and techniques. Gamed it out. Buried their missiles. Pursued every asymetric weapons system. Created deep chains of leadership succession. They told the US exactly what they would do if attacked -- hit our bases in 9+ countries, close Hormuz. We hit them. They did what they said they would do. Now they are implying they will hit targets in the USA if we nuke them. Israel wants Iran nuked because they view this moment as existential and for them it is. eg if Iran is not beaten now then the ME is re-ordered and Israel is in bigger trouble. Likely Iran has gamed out being nuked also. So we are at brinksmanship and a stand off.
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