saw Kornaki on MSNBC showing Harris had same polling as Biden

[leftgirl]

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/msnbcs-steve-kornacki-dismisses-kamala-doing-better-than-biden-based-more-on-hope-than-actual-polling/

saw this clip of Kornaki on Andrea Mitchell maybe 1/2 hour ago.....

[obamanut2012]

1. And?

[WarGamer]

3. It's still early and polling before she became the presumptive candidate is tough.

A week ago, yeah she wasn't doing any better than Biden...

But with a clean fresh launch I wouldn't be surprised to see her grab a lead in the next round of polls.

[obamanut2012]

12. Yup, that was my point with the OP

Last week was a gulf away from today. I agree, especially after teh convention, and if her Veep pick is Shapiro or similar.

[WarGamer]

14. I still think it's a 50/50 election...

And the Blue Wall will decide this thing.

[Deek1935]

20. And it means nothing, except MAYBE that it will be CLOSE election. People really need to stop handwringing over polls.

[WarGamer]

21. Polling is all we've got and in this past it HAS been useful to judge trends and in the aggregate form...

has been accurate historically.

Just because Rasmussen or Gallup released crap polls doesn't mean the aggregate they dropped into wasn't accurate.

[Arazi]

24. It's primarily what drove Biden out

So now we don’t care about polls?

But we did when it was useful to force him out?

🤔

[ecstatic]

2. I don't know why they're pulling Kornacki out so soon. She hasn't done any campaigning as nominee yet

There's a lot of work to do and we are sticking with KH til the bitter end.

[Bucky]

39. So Kornacki's numbers are actually good news

Not one pol reflects on her as the actual nominee. And yet she's just 2-3 points down against America's #1 bamboozler. .

That tells me a LOT more about Trump's weaknesses than about her still-unrevealed strengths

[getagrip_already]

4. Karnacki is a hack

Always has been.

And polls are pointless right now (or ever).

He is just trying to satisify his pay masters.

[Bucky]

37. Kornacki is good at his job.

You just need to be smart enough to provide the right context.

Harris's numbers are based on being ignored by the press and not having one blessed day to actually campaign.

Give her time and attention and you'll see those numbers change.

Quit blaming the media for delivering unhappy news. Shooting the messenger is an act of fear. We're running a campaign of confidence and hope.

[getagrip_already]

41. No, karnacki has always been a hack, but he is a hack that is good at his job

That doesnt make him good at analysis. It makes him entertaining, which is his job.

Dont confuse style with substance.

[Bucky]

46. I hear you, but I've done statistical analysis for a living

I've only observed him laying it out straight over the years. He's a score board reader, not an ally.

I'd ask you not to confuse unwelcome news with malicious intent.

[getagrip_already]

48. Ive done it as well....

But i can see when someone is merely going through the motions. It isnt malicious on his part, although the network is far from innocent, and he has his bias.

I dont take it as bad news since i simply dont believe the polls. What i object to is their presentation as black and white fact.

Polls are not facts. Yet they are presented as such.

My expertise came as an asqc certified quality engineer with a specialty in design of experiments. I know not to confuse probability with fact. The media doesnt.

[JohnSJ]

49. Actually Kornacki said it would take a few. weeks to see the impact. There

wasn’t enough data.

I think the problem with the polls is that Democratic support was under represented. Democrats polled were more concerned about Biden, and while the majority of Democrats were all on board for Biden, it represented less than 2020. That being said, I firmly believe most of those “concerned” Democrats on Biden, would have voted for him in November, and that was not accurately reflected in the polls.

My view is that Harris will consolidate that concerned Democratic support shortly, and that will be reflected positively for us in the polls.

The challenge will then be getting independents aboard.

[Bucky]

50. And he's dead right about that.

Youre right about independents being key. But the surest path to a blue win is if we get YouTube and first time voters back in the mix. That's how we've win in the past: Clinton in…'92, Obama in '08, both appealed to youth voters, both were under 50 and threw the word Hope around liberally.

Trump is rather stupidly running as an incumbent. His message is mostly about the past and getting even. People perpetually want a break from the toxic flavor Republicans always generate in politics, so I think Harris has the opening to reframe this election as building a better future.

I find this exciting. I think she is undefined enough to rebrand herself as a new politician. She's got cool stepmom vibes (which ironically, she actually is). Attacking her for dating around while she was single is gonna backfire harsh on the Republicans. They'd be basically attacking Mary Tyler Moore.

I think this is gonna be a good year for us. We just need our party leaders to handle it right.

[PortTack]

52. Agree...he's just repeating what his RW bosses tell him. Skew the #s any way you want, as long as they favor tsf!

[TwilightZone]

5. Anything that happened before Biden's announcement is mostly irrelevant now.

Circumstances have changed so much that nothing before should be taken seriously.

Once people have had some time to digest the sea change and react, a comparison might be more apt.

[crud]

9. I think this has changed the race in ways that are totally unpredictable

but personally, I'm a lot more hopeful today.

[TwilightZone]

13. Agree on both counts.

[Mz Pip]

6. That was then

This is now.

Give it a few days. I expect her numbers to increase.

[Sogo]

7. That's total BS.

There hasn't been enough time for a current poll since the announcement.

[RANDYWILDMAN]

8. Horse race BS

yeah, nothing to see here...this does not reflect the actual change that just happened.

[BigDemVoter]

10. I think I saw the same thing.

But didn't Kornacki say that Harris is polling one point better and that in itself is "significant"?

She should do quite well once the contrast with the geriatric **$$Y-Grabber is broadcast. . . Cheeto is now the oldest person to ever run for President, and this should be hammered hard (along with all of his other shit). . . .

[maxsolomon]

11. Unsurprising.

There are few undecideds remaining. They're nearly all low information voters.

Hopefully she can make an impression on these ding dongs, but she's not likely to change the sentiments of, for instance, Muslim voters in MI who are planning to sit this election out because of the Administration's policy on the Gaza War.

[GoodRaisin]

15. She's been running for President for one day.

It’s a starting point. Give it a few weeks to see significant changes. The way the Party is embracing her is the encouraging factor right now.

[Zambero]

33. Yes, but TRENDS please!!

[Kingofalldems]

16. Should we give up?

[JohnSJ]

17. A Hypothetical candidate polling is not valid. She is now a candidate. At a

minimum when she becomes the official candidate she will consolidate Democratic support which will move poll numbers in our favor

It will only get better

[moonscape]

23. Hopefully. Candidates often are more

popular before they run, a hypotheticals. May her numbers rise.

Definitely ready for a woman, finally!

[Zambero]

34. When the media has absolutely nothing to go by

It's FABRICATION time!

[Kid Berwyn]

18. Tankhaki stays on-script.

Guy looks like a dweeb, and he acts like a dweeb, and he sounds like a dweeb, but he's also a master manipulator of spin rot.

[Deek1935]

19. Said it when Joe was running, am saying it again. Polls mean nothing, and it will be CLOSE no matter what.

[Wounded Bear]

22. It takes at least a week for polls to react to singular events...nt

[Takket]

25. It was all hypothetical so while Biden was the nominee people aren't really going to answer and different when

Asked about Harris. Now that she is the nominee, that will change the calculus and her number will go up. In a week there should be some effect but no one is really going to have any opinion on her until after the convention.

[oasis]

26. The energy coming out of our Dem Convention

will flow into the households of America.

[FSogol]

30. A Big Blue Wave is coming!

[kerry-is-my-prez]

27. Only the battleground polls matter - the electoral votes.

The National pools can give you an idea. Dems usually win the popular vote but often struggle with the @#% electoral college.

[angrychair]

28. Those polls are old

And are meaningless now. The script has changed dramatically since those polls were done.

1) She was a hypothetical candidate, not the actual candidate.
2) her potential support on that poll was diluted by others that have now endorsed her.

In another three weeks I fully believe those numbers will be very different.

[lapfog_1]

29. wait until AFTER the Democratic convention

and Harris is the nominee and there is a VP pick.

The money is coming by the truckload now... the energy is waay up.

The polling will follow. Harris/X will be 4 to 6 points up in almost every swing state. We will need to keep it going all the way to November... but the repukes have lost one of their main issues of the campaign that, like or not, was hurting us... Joe's age.

Love Joe, supported him every time he ran (go back in the way back machine to 2008 and read my posts). But his age became an issue ( fairly or unfairly ). Now that issue is gone... and their third time pick is now the oldest person to ever run for President and has many mental issues that are easy to see. And Vance, which was a next gen MAGA continuation choice and NOT a choice to bring more people to the GOP or mollify the never trumpers... Vance will be a millstone around their necks with his obvious and horrible misogyny.

[Sympthsical]

31. Way too early

I'd at least give it a week.

And then we'll probably get a decent convention bounce. After that settles a week or two post-convention, we should have a good sense of how we're entering the fall.

[Johonny]

32. That was what I saw

She was statistically no different than Biden. Which before the convention probably won't mean anything. People are banking on a younger candidate closes the senate president polling gap in swing states. Which it might. Don't know.

[newdayneeded]

35. Actually, not that it matters

but she actually is polling slightly better than Biden vs trump.

I too believe trump is in trouble. First with an almost zero bump from his convention, and now with the excitement that is building by the hour for Kamala. I think polls are about to tip toward Kamala by at least 3 to 4 points min.

[lees1975]

36. Even Kornacki admitted...

the quality of the battleground state polling right now is low and scattered. Of course, when being used to force Biden out, those same polls were said to predict the actual number of voters who will show up in each precinct and how they will vote.

I honestly think Biden would have easily cleared the 277 electoral vote line, maybe 290 as every other indicator, including some polling data, was pointing to. Of course, Harris gets the "too old" rhetoric off the table, and with two committed male chauvinists on the GOP ticket, she will definitely increase the number of women who will get to the ballot box instead of staying home. I wouldn't have a problem with her choosing another female running mate, like Gretchen Whitmer, or AOC.

I won't be surprised if there's little change in the polling data even after the DNC. The media wouldn't want that, it would hurt their ratings, and I think there is more to it than just data being collected, if you know what I mean.

[brooklynite]

38. It's a little early to expect the Harris candidacy to impact polling...

[Bettie]

40. And now the media begins its laser focus

on dragging her down while elevating that orange sack of crap, pretending he's anything but what he actually is, a career criminal and now convicted felon. Any awful thing you can think of, it probably describes him.

It's what our media does. 24/7.

[M_Demo_M]

42. It's going to be close, so ...

Stay excited, stay united, and vote, vote, vote!

[lindysalsagal]

43. If she's starting tied, then with all the ads, she'll climb above

With better name recognition. Many voters don't know enough about her to have an opinion, yet.

[GaYellowDawg]

44. Captain Khaki Pants can fuck right off.

Polling is going to change when VP Harris's candidacy is a realistic possibility rather than just theoretical. She's also going to be much more under as spotlight and tapes of her running rings around Trump administration officials and Kavanaugh are going to juice her numbers right up. He obviously didn't take that into account.

[getagrip_already]

45. Karnacki is an entertainer, not a serious analyst

He just spits out what the editors put up for him to say.

He is there for color commentary. He does his job well, but he is not someone to rely on.

[ViewObsessed]

47. The swing states will soon love Kamala!

[bucolic_frolic]

51. Kornacki is a plague

Trying to emulate a nerd weather forecaster in the political realm.

[Doodley]

53. I'm predicting a poll bounce in next week or two that will put her 5-10% ahead of Trump.

[CentralMass]

54. Yes. I poked my head out a few times to look at the polls

and saw this. On one had the polls are not it doesn't make the case for replacing Biden on the ticket. On the other hand they may not mean much at this point. Only the results in November will tell.

[brush]

55. Screw Kornacki, closet rethug that he is. There can't be any poll reflecting...

what just developed 27 hours ago, meaning Joe Biden stepping down.

Poll number from before that mean nothing.