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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsJames Carville's "advice" helped give us Trump 2.0
For the past 150 years or so, any party who failed to renominate their incumbent President has lost the general election, but it was his advice that we do so... and the comments of him and sundry others drove President Biden to withdraw from the race--- which according to some 150 years of previous history guaranteed that we would lose the general election.
and we did.
Sometime later he assured us that VP Harris would win....
but she didn't.
Now he wants to tell us that joining the groundswell of support for a fighting Democrat named AOC
would be a big mistake....
Well.... his advice hasn't been any good since 1992,
and I wish he would just SHUT THE FUCK UP,
and retire to a swing on his porch, as he pushed President Biden to do.
He isn't so much younger than Fighting Joe, after all....

regnaD kciN
(26,985 posts)and has spent the last three decades pretending he was the brains behind it all.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)worth shit... or any advice AT ALL, for that matter...
He should go write his memoirs
InAbLuEsTaTe
(25,105 posts)Paladin
(30,254 posts)Carville needs to do everyone a favor and disappear.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(25,105 posts)GreenWave
(11,091 posts)FoxNewsSucks
(11,120 posts)He gives them a lot of talking points
brush
(59,634 posts)I will add that Joe Biden was not well served by his staff. They had him traveling to Europe for WWll memorials, which was mandatory, but then they had him travel back and all the way to California before the debate.
He was exhausted at the debate and it showed. No way could he remain in the race after that.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)and I said at the time, if we abandoned our incumbent President,
according to history we were guaranteed to lose.
I have been proven correct about that.
Joe's chances might not have been good,
but they were better than no chance at all.
However, when it was a "done deal" and he endorsed Kamala,
I was with her 100%--- and felt good about where I thought we were,
early in her campaign.
However, the weight of history proved to be too large of a burden to win
(as well as racism and mysogeny, of course)
brush
(59,634 posts)all the media MSM, newspapers, cable shows, online outlets, Russian bots. No way did he have a chance to win after that performance.
Sad but true. It was either VP Harris or a rushed Dem primary. The party opted for VP Harris and she did a wonderful job.
IMO no way did she lose every swing state. I think Musk money (bribes maybe) had a lot to do with the results.
Response to brush (Reply #5)
Post removed
FoxNewsSucks
(11,120 posts)it was likely also his computer hackers. It's not a crazy thing to question that.
brush
(59,634 posts)GreenWave
(11,091 posts)JI7
(91,794 posts)were saying he should step aside. This makes it seem as if Carville was one of few. And he certainly wasn't one of the influential ones.
Clooney, Pelosi, and all the other Democrats in office where each day more and more kept calling for Biden to drop out were the reason.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)and several US Senators lost their campaigns, even after they said Biden should withdraw, as he did.
I'm liking some AOC right now--- tired of old lame Democrats
(even if I resemble them)
Cloony, YEAH, I have no use for him either.
karynnj
(60,210 posts)They had a very tough decision. Biden was sick during that debate and far worse than in any other appearance. Biden and his team knew the debate was important and cancelling for illness would unfortunately be used to confirm that he was unhealthy.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)attempted to set up another date, a week or so later.... using some other excuse, if necessary.
Woulda, shoulda.... didn't.
kansasobama
(1,750 posts)And, I wrote to the Biden's and the Democratic Party but obviously no one listens or cares.
YOU DO NOT DEBATE TRUMP. PERIOD. IT DOES NOT MATTER WHETHER YOU WIN OR LOSE THE DEBATE
Debates with Trump or the cult GOP candidates are merely a motivator for their voters. MSM and Dems debate to death about our missteps. The GOP voters, on the other hand, just " high five" whatever they say. Content does not matter. Why are we not learning? Considering he wanted to run, Biden made a big mistake calling for a debate. That is it.
Want examples? Clinton-Trump, Bush-Gore, Bush-Kerry. Even the 2020 Biden-Trump did not really help Biden. A wider race became a close election after the debates.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)attempting to "flood the zone" until his debate opponent shuts up i frustration...
karynnj
(60,210 posts)After the barrage of Swiftboat liars ads and the Republican convention, Kerry was almost 10 points behind. The debates were what made it close. So close, the Republicans needed voter suppression in Ohio cities. The difference may have been both Kerry's unusual skill as a debator and his enormous discipline that allowed him not to visibly react to Bush. ( also the advantage of seeing how the media beat up on Gore for sighing) Out of power, the only times Kerry had to speak directly to the country were his convention and the debates. Remember that Kerry could not do the half an hour paid ad that Obama did as he was very financially constrained.
Part of the problem is that as you described, the two sides are not treated equally. For Biden to refuse to debate, the he is too old, too mentally challenged would have been as bad as doing the debate sick. I think his team saw the 2020 debates as either helpful or a draw. What i wonder in hindsight is whether they could have set the stage better by using the 2020 footage to focus on Trump not answering questions, lying and being abusive. In 2020, Biden did best when calling Trump out for doing exactly that.
The sad thing is that even with detailed press conferences and interviews where Biden gave great, thoughtful answers to complex questions, once the terrible debate happened it could not have been corrected. I suspect that might have been because it fit the narrative that Biden was getting too old that was omnipresent on the right and in more mainstream places where there was a desire for him to transition to someone younger.
He went on national television and made a threat to go to donors. He was the catalyst for Bidens being forced to step down. I cant believe people refuse to see what actually happened.
William769
(58,802 posts)No man has that much power or influence over our party. A big
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)You know where you can put your thumb, if it pleases you.
William769
(58,802 posts)

Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)Care to "open your cam" ???
JAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJAJA
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)by both politicians and some of the party rank-and-file---
that we could somehow defeat precedent and history, by dumping Joe Biden.
Obviously, it didn't work--- and I made that argument at the time.
I was right about that much.
markodochartaigh
(2,707 posts)came out for marriage equality before his president or party were ready (an amazingly courageous thing to do). President Biden made a priority of reuniting children and their families separated by Trump. President Biden was the first president to walk a picket line.
President Biden bed-bound and on a ventilator, with 30 minutes of medically induced consciousness a day would be leaps and bounds better than any other president we have had in 50 years.
But after that debate, I don't think that he could have won. The fault is not his, it is ours. Shallow, plastic, "fake it 'til you make it" America is the problem.
Still, until the Democratic party has both houses of Congress and the presidency I'm not going to report for duty on the circular firing squad.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)but I was never a stark raving rapey felonious lunatic---
and when I was President, you could sleep at night."
~ my fictional quote from President Joe Biden
Mister Ed
(6,576 posts)...this Carville character has absolutely zero relevance in the 21st Century.
He's not an oracle. He's just some guy yapping on the TV. I'm surprised that any think his pronouncements worthy of note or discussion.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)Mister Ed
(6,576 posts)...but rather, a criticism of TV producers who think Carville is worthy of airtime, and of viewers who put any stock at all in what he has to say.
everyonematters
(3,752 posts)a second term because of his age. He might be wrong about AOC. The debate solidified it.
Johonny
(23,431 posts)Pretend that they still knew better. They aren't much different than Trump. They cannot admit a mistake.
It is possible that Biden would have lost anyway. It is not true that forcing out the primary winner gave them a good narrative going into the general election. Biden had a terrible first debate, but no worse than Bush or Obama and both won.
It is true that world wide incumbents were losing due to inflation. But the party should have read that situation . . . In the summer of 2023 not 2024.
Self Esteem
(2,070 posts)It would have been a bloodbath, unfortunately. Trump would have easily won the election and had a much larger mandate than he does now, while Democrats a larger hole to climb out of.
Trump was on course for an Obama 2008 style victory with Biden in the race.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)Could you give me God's phone number? since you presume to have it
Self Esteem
(2,070 posts)...and why every single one of those senators pushed for Biden to step aside. They knew with him at the top of the ticket, he would have sank their reelection bids and they knew this because their own internal polling was showing it.
Polls consistently showed Democrats were not enthusiastic at all about Biden being in the race. I know so many people here wanted to plug their ears and ignore reality about the polling ... but it was far closer to being right than anyone here.
But let's not talk about being prophetic.
I was put through the ringer multiple times for how many times I said the race was a toss-up and that Harris could lose.
I'm not a prophet but I can read the vibes and the polling and everything was trending toward disaster with Biden in the race.
EdmondDantes_
(414 posts)That was the worst debate performance on a visual/audible basis that I can recall. Yes on the substance he was better than Trump, but TV is such a visual medium and our voting population isn't voting purely on policy. Yeah Bush looked like he was in over his head, but neither he or Obama looked like they physically weren't capable of the job. Nor were they down as much in the polls and apparently even more so in the internal polls as Biden was.
kansasobama
(1,750 posts)They still think voters are intelligent.
Self Esteem
(2,070 posts)Biden was on a collision course for a landslide loss. He was looking at losing by the largest margin of any Democrat since Dukakis.
Worse, his being on the ticket would have likely taken senate seats Democrats barely won with him (Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin).
Biden stood zero chance at winning that election last November. Harris at least made the environment strong enough that Democrats didn't get absolutely destroyed top to bottom.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)and I don't want to hear anything more from him regarding 2028
Self Esteem
(2,070 posts)The only reason Democrats didn't get absolutely massacred last November is because Biden finally pulled the plug on his campaign.
karynnj
(60,210 posts)1992 was also the Republicans running for a fourth term with a not very charismatic President with a wealthy populist libertarian, Perot, running primarily against Bush. It is very likely any of the Democratic nominees, if they ran a competent campaign, would have won.
Carville and Begala then mythologized their 1992 roles in the campaign in War Room. In fact, the win of the nomination likely had far more to do with Clinton's genuine charisma, the number of more liberal opponents who never settled behind an anybody but Clinton person and the mostly southern states super Tuesday happening when it did. Even so, he didn't clinch until June.
Since then, he was definitely a net negative with his smirky comments in almost every election since. He was terrible as one of the most prominent Democrats on TV in 2004, claiming Kerry was just "anybody but Bush", a concept that only makes sense in the primary, ignoring Kerry's campaign dominating the primaries, losing just 4 states including favorite son victories for Dean and Edwards after he clinched the nomination far earlier than Clinton had. As someone who was impressed by Kerry, I resented this as I remembered that as a working mother of three, I took the time to look at Clinton's "putting people forward" so I could advocate for him, a candidate i did not particularly like in the primaries.
He likely hurt Hillary's campaigns in 2008 and 2016 and was irrelevant to the Obama campaigns. He was not helpful or particularly insightful in either 2020 or 2024.
tman
(1,185 posts)All the data (public and private) pointed to a Biden loss and with Harris as the nominee, most of us knew the race was a tossup at best.
An almost certain loss VS a toss up. Those were the options after that disastrous first debate.
One could argue how we could've avoided this whole debacle in the first place but that would be too controversial.
krawhitham
(4,982 posts)2024
Dems 75,017,613
GQP 77,302,580
other 2,950,136
total 155,270,329
2020
Dems 81,283,501
GQP 74,223,975
Other 3,011,867
total 158,519,343
2020 vs 2024
Dems -6,265,888
GQP +3,078,605
Other +61,731
Total +3,249,014
Maybe the orange turd converted 3 million Dems or maybe he just drove 3 million more of his supports to the polls
Be we lost because we stayed home, many stayed home, specially in the 65+ age group solely because Joe was pushed out. (You push an old guy out, old people have going to have feelings about it)
Self Esteem
(2,070 posts)65+ made up 28% of the voting electorate in 2024. Trump won this group 50-49.
In 2020, 65+ only made up 22% of the vote. Trump won this group 52-47.
So, not only was there a sizable bump of older voters in 2024 compared to 2020, Harris did six-points better than Biden in 2020.
The voters who stayed home were younger voters - or they marginally shifted to the right.
In 2020, 18-29 voters made up 17% of the electorate. Biden won this group 60-36.
In 2024, 18-29 voters made up 14% of voters and Harris won this group 54-43.
Democrats went +24 with this group in 2020 to just +11 in 2024.
That's why they lost.
And we know, based on polls, that Biden was hemorrhaging support from younger voters. Harris likely stopped some of that bleeding but it wasn't enough. Younger voters shifted hard to the right this last election, even if Harris still did "well".
Biden would have been cooked.
Regardless, the numbers suggest you're wrong about old people staying home. They saw an uptick from four years ago and even shifted more Democratic. But the younger voters came out less and those who did come out were more Trump friendly than in 2020.
red dog 1
(30,719 posts)But I don't think it was only or mainly "in the 65+ age group"...I think a lot of Gen Z voters stayed home too, perhaps a few million.
PCIntern
(27,289 posts)Nominating AOC would be beyond catastrophic.
I do recall that after Trump was elected, there were a whole bunch of Democrats who wanted to get Oprah for president. Nothing could be stupider than that
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)and the Republicans all screamed that Obama was a "socialist", didn't they--- ??
but it didn't work.
By the time 2028 rolls around, quite possibly any Democrat can win--
if they don't get caught raping a live boy or a dead girl
At this early point in the contest, she has the most "oomp". Booker is second.
Way past time for Democrats to quit worrying about what used to be
"normal politics". All that matters is exciting your base---
even if your base is excited by a rapey convicted felon raving lunatic---
apparently those negative things don't matter anymore---
and AOC is certainly none of those!
tritsofme
(19,112 posts)It would have been an absolute disaster.
Harris might well have been doomed from the start, but she kept the wheels on in a way that a post-debate Biden was not capable of.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)pushed Biden out of the race, did not want Kamala either....
they wanted to create some kind of fictional "second chance" presidential primary...
Kamala LOST, so that seems no less of a 'distaster' than if President Biden had been on the ballot,
as far as I'm concerned....
He did happen to be a "white male", so I have to presume in our sad state of affairs,
that this would have been worth a percentage point of two, in the general election...
And, he might have been able to make some kind of recovery. Now, we'll never know for sure---
and anyone who claims to know for sure, is just a fucking liar.
In It to Win It
(10,477 posts)Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)GUARANTEED that you would lose the general election for the past 100 years!
Pushing Joe out of the race only guaranteed that we would end up with Trump 2.0,
and that historical lesson still stands.
In It to Win It
(10,477 posts)They renominated Trump in 2020, he lost.
HW Bush was renominated and lost.
Jimmy Carter was renominated and lost.
Incumbents can lose.
Joe Biden deciding to run for reelection as a not-so-popular president is what guaranteed Trump 2.0. The incumbent for which people blame inflation on is what guaranteed Trump 2.0. Being in denial that Joe Bidens age became an election issue, as unfair as it was to Joe Biden, is what guaranteed Trump 2.0.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)the general election if you abandon your incumbent President. That rule STILL stands.
Doesn't mean you will win if you renominate your incumbent,
but if you DON'T, they you ARE guaranteed to LOSE.
My point still stands. That some incumbents also lost in the past is quite beside the point.
In It to Win It
(10,477 posts)Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)abandoning their living incumbent president in the past 100 years---
then we can talk.
My main point in this whole thread is mostly that Carville and all the others
who pushed President Biden out of the race, to supposedly
"save us from Trump"
should NOW just SHUT THE FUCK UP--- their presumed 'expert advice'
did us no good,
and their advice about who should the the 2028 nominee
is worth just as much as a shitty wad of toilet paper.
In It to Win It
(10,477 posts)Nothing more for me to say at this point.
NoMoreRepugs
(11,233 posts)Learning from what happened and strategizing going forward to save/reclaim our Democracy is the ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.
gulliver
(13,415 posts)And she didn't do that. Biden had already endorsed her, and Dems all fell in line, enthusiastically. I'm no different. I was caught up in the "joy" too and thought she would win. Trump was shaking in his boots.
I blame the combination of wokism and "fighterism" for our loss basically. We pick bad fights. We let anyone who wants our mic have it, whether they're dumb or saint wannabes or babbling hotheads. We claim we love fighters, but the people we pick as fighters are just people who gripe and whine and stir resentment. We don't even know what a fighter is.
IrishBubbaLiberal
(1,521 posts)Carville still lives in the 1990s,
The political landscape is GONE that he still pontificates about.
His current nonstop advice are merely empty words, spewing with no substance.
Nonsense.
Like an old football star in high school,
decades later still living in the past,
red dog 1
(30,719 posts)(Sounds like Al Bundy)
IrishBubbaLiberal
(1,521 posts)Noticed your SF local
I went to GGU, Golden Gate Univ in financial district
a few decades ago. 🤓
Was a BECHTEL sponsored Masters for Construction Project Mgmt
I could sure go for some Golden Boy PIZZA 😎
Or Tomassos pasta dishes
Then a couple of Irish Coffees at Buena Vista,
too bad Paul Nolan finally retired after all this decades
Clam and Garlic PIZZA. 😍
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)
Ol Janx Spirit
(155 posts)...and reassure us after the tragedy of the pandemic and Felonious Orange's handling of it. But what we also needed from Biden was the honest self-assessment of his ability to carry his leadership on into a second term.
While he did hold 14 solo press conferences in his first three years in office, it really did feel like we rarely heard from him in a setting that showed his mental acuity. It was concerning to me at the time, and when the first debate came around I really expected Biden to perform well against the obvious firehose of lies and hatred he would be facing.
The actual result made my heart sink. It seemed obvious why I didn't feel like he had been making as many appearances. And the excuses from the Administration felt like just that: excuses. The Biden team had demanded the time, place and format of the debate for some--what seemed to me at the time--odd reason, and this was the result.... It was over at that point in my mind....
I can't even imagine what being in Biden's position at the time was like. We all know our own limitations as we age, but we often refuse to believe them and carry on as if nothing has changed. Was Biden self-aware enough to know that debate performance was a possibility? Did he really want to be a one-term president but look around and not feel there was another Democrat that could do the job? Did the trappings of power after seeking the position for so long cloud his judgement?
At any rate, it seems very difficult to blame those on the outside looking in for expressing their honest opinion. And while Carville is not high on my list of people I listen to for advice, the Biden Administration would have done well to concentrate every day on the one simple piece of advice he was famous for: "It's the economy stupid."
Scubamatt
(149 posts)At the height of his career with Clinton, Carville was known for the principle of YOU ALWAYS RESPOND IMMEDIATELY to the lies the other side was creating and you always take the offense. He seems to have forgotten his own lessons. Good riddance.
RandomNumbers
(18,555 posts)How many years of history do we have that says a woman can't win the Presidency of the U.S.? ** So isn't advocating for AOC just as crazy as Carville saying Biden needed to drop out? (I like AOC in general, have some specific differences with her, and want to see her progress - just not to run for President at this time.)
Also just curious, because I actually don't know and maybe somebody else does ... when was the last time an extreme LIBERAL won the US Presidency? ***
** I dearly WISH we could have a woman as President, although I don't vote in the primary on that basis. I thoroughly despise the misogyny that reigns in this country. But despising something doesn't make it go away. I'm always going to vote on the issues - if AOC *does* present in a way that is better than the other primary candidates, I would likely vote for her despite my misgivings about her chances in the general election. But I don't think she will - I think we will have better candidates.
*** Republicans can elect extremists like Trump because the Republican party is politically far more homogenous than the Democratic party. Basically they are the Anti-Liberal party, and very good at keeping their voters in line. On the other hand, Democrats have to appeal to a much broader set of priorities. We are the cat-herding party. Someone who sits on the radical edge of any key position will most likely alienate another important faction of potential Dem voters.
Jack Valentino
(1,880 posts)(actually, Obama and Biden were not "extreme liberals",
but socialists or communists, according to the Republicans....)
"when was the last time an extreme LIBERAL won the US Presidency? ***"
SocialDemocrat61
(4,272 posts)They keep putting him on their shows because they want him to be controversial.
red dog 1
(30,719 posts)Fuck the corporate media!
Mountainguy
(1,736 posts)That gave progressives a sad and now the knives are out for him.
Typical behavior.
Mike 03
(18,404 posts)I admit there used to be a gush of nostalgia when Carville would come on TV, or I'd hear his voice on the radio--remembering those early fun days in the Clinton administration and particularly the War Room days of the campaign.
But if he's offered seriously useful advice over the last year or two I'm sorry to say I've missed it.
The guy I DO miss is David Gergen, who retired from doing what Carville does a couple of years ago. I later found out he began his career as a Republican, but he seemed to evolve and I always found him impartial and able to give really good advice--usually to our side.
demmiblue
(38,250 posts)
UTUSN
(73,931 posts)Keepthesoulalive
(1,187 posts)We have quite a few paid influencers, people who will sell their mothers for money and power.
He was the first one to ask donors to withhold their contributions. Whatever bull hes pushing now its too late, we are watching a mad man destroying our country and he owns a large part of that.
ILikePie92
(86 posts)I can't wait for the claims of ageist slurs to begin since you had the gall to mention his chronological time on this planet. Heavens to Betsy, where are my clutching pearls?
I'm being sarcastic, hopefully obviously and agree with your post. And before I get the hateful replies claiming I'm ageist too, let it be known that I'm no spring chicken myself. Geez.
PurgedVoter
(2,473 posts)There is a reason that Conservative (pronounced Fascist) media keeps quoting him and not Al Franken.
iemanja
(55,866 posts)The number one mistake was his seeking reelection in the first place.
thought crime
(169 posts)Eliot Rosewater
(32,843 posts)Record registration record turnout, record people at the rallies. Theres just no way sorry.
Record-breaking fundraising, he did not win. He did not win. I dont know what the fuck happened but eventually when it comes out, yeah he did not win.
Experts who observe elections for the sole purpose of turnout and fundraising and registration, one after another saying its not possible
Eliot Rosewater
(32,843 posts)All in swing states
walkingman
(9,124 posts)almost 20 million Dems who voted for Biden in 2020 did not vote this time - for whatever reason.
I just don't think people took the threat of Trump seriously enough. A similar thing hurt us in 2016 - people for various reason did not vote.
Simple cure.....VOTE like your lives depend on it....because they very well could. Hope we do better in 2026 in the midterms, otherwise you might say we deserve what we get. If out Democracy lasts that long.
Faux pas
(15,635 posts)the EFF up, dry up and blow away.
samplegirl
(12,910 posts)She was the biggest Rightwing Cheerleader ever.