This economist says there's a 90% chance of a recession. Here's the math.

[Historic NY]

That what is heading for the U.S. unless tariff policies are swiftly changed, according to Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.

Slok said small businesses that account for more than 80% of employment and capital expenditure don’t have the working capital to pay tariffs.

“Expect ships to sit offshore, orders to be canceled, and well-run generational retailers to file for bankruptcy,” he says.

There’s some math behind Slok’s assertion that puts a recession at a 90% likelihood.

[link:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-economist-says-theres-a-90-chance-of-a-recession-unless-tariff-policies-are-changed-e43c40d1

[yardwork]

1. Trump is destroying America.

[UpInArms]

2. Link behind paywall

https://archive.ph/R2pfe

[Johonny]

3. A lot of vacancies and empty store fronts

Popping up around me.

[AllyCat]

4. And yet, Slok still thinks phasing in tariffs over a couple years is a good idea.

Suggests an uneven of “your country reduces tariffs to zero and we’ll only charge you 10%”.

Sounds like MAGAt logic to me.

[Historic NY]

5. Boeing had a 160 plane contract w/China

they were hoping to get back on steady ground.

Meanwhile, Christmas is not going to be easy this year.