Supply shortage wave will roll from LA/SFO starting about May 25, reaching NYC about June 5.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

Last edited Fri Apr 25, 2025, 12:11 AM - Edit history (2)

April 2: "Liberation Day"
April 2 night: Libation Night
April 3: Liquidation Day
April 9: Tariffs vs China imposed, quickly ratched up to 145%

Everything in transit is theoretically exempt but might get slowed down. Businesses did what they could to expedite in advance but it was limited.

Cargo Bookings for May are down 40% vs May 2024. Basically that is for orders that had to be placed after April 9. Takes about 45 days for order to go Chinese factory to dock to ship to ocean to LA to sit on dock. 55 days to get to NYC by ocean or add 10 days from LA to NYC by truck including lading and off lading.

April 10 + 45 days --> May 25.
April 10 + 55 days --> June 5

Timing of course is approximate, but expect there to be a period of about two weeks to go from sort of normal to noticeable spaces on shelves and another two weeks for it to become undeniable and much remarked on.

mahatmakanejeeves https://www.democraticunderground.com/1116100359
applegrove https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220265346

Paul Krugman cargo bookings graph reposted in bluesky:

The crash in container ships arriving at the Port of Los Angeles (busiest in US) depicted in this graph should hit in a few weeks, which means lost business for truckers and probably some empty shelves in stores.

Unless something big changes, the problems should become more apparent in the summer.

— Nicholas Grossman (@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social) 2025-04-24T14:59:13.804Z

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) is an index of electronically tendered freight volumes on a given day.

A tender is a load offer from a shipper to a trucking company that is sent electronically. These are actual loads and are transmitted a few days before they are scheduled to be picked up. This is the most current and reliable indicator of market demand.

The white line is 2025 and has begun an ominous little dip:

[roamer65]

1. Study the WW2 rationing of 1942-1945, folks.

We are about to experience it again. We will have do without in many cases.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. Soup kitchens too. Re-use, repair, repurpose, do more with less. Used cars rise in relative value

... as people hold on to them longer.

Cultivate your local repair shop.

[Nixie]

32. Car parts price snd availability might be affected with used cars, too.

I just was talking to our shop after an oil change and they were concerned about that.

[CountAllVotes]

34. I really need to sell my car

Today is the day my attorney told me I could do it.

How do I go about it?

I'm living alone and an old woman.

I cannot afford a car any longer it seems.

Please advise if you can!

Thank you everyone!!

[MissB]

40. Consider sites like CarMax or Carvana

It’s been four years since I’ve used Carmax, but I was in the process of buying an EV from a dealer and they were not interested in my trade in - we are talking like $5k offer.

Carmax gave me $23k for the trade-in. I put the info into their website, it gave me an offer and I drove it to the local Carmax place. They took about a half hour to check it out to see if it matched the info I’d put in then they gave me the paperwork to sign over to them and they cut me a check for the agreed upon price.

It was seamless.

Carvana picks up the car, I think, but otherwise works similarly. They weren’t in my area at that point.

[CountAllVotes]

43. there is a lien on the car

It was in two accidents. I wasn't informed of them and found out about them after I got it.

They lied to me badly, very badly.

Carvana was not interested.

>>I just tried CARMAX and the nearest store is over 200 miles away.

Thank you!

[James48]

2. It's going to be sooner than that.

It isn’t 45 days from China to L.A. for modern cargo container ships, it typically is 22 days from Shanghai.

22 days. Then, on average, a 4 day wait to unload right now. They is quickly dwindling, and will end by next week.
April 10, plus 22 days, plus 5 days, is May 7. (Your expected May 25 is my May 7th .

Two weeks after than, store shelves will be bare in spots. By the end of June the economy collapses.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. You may be right. I thought 45 + 10 seemed a bit extended. . . . . nt

[MissB]

3. At this point there has been enough coverage of potential shortages

Last edited Fri Apr 25, 2025, 04:50 AM - Edit history (1)

That I expect this weekend to be a bit chaotic in terms of shopping.

[GP6971]

11. As if you have to ask.

[William769]

12. Library books.

[Scrivener7]

15. Um ... no. What are you saying? What does "no cap" mean?

Is that one of those "pure conjecture" things again?

[Sympthsical]

20. "No cap" is Gen Z for "for real" or "no lie"

I use it around nephews when I want their faces to hurt from cringe.

[Scrivener7]

36. Thanks. Though with that poster, that meaning seems very ironic.

[MissB]

13. Probably toilet paper

I have a Costco run to make today (my usual stuff, not a stock up), so I’ll report back

[MarineCombatEngineer]

16. Library cards and books.

[Demovictory9]

4. Scary

[modrepub]

5. And The Market Gurus and M$M

have totally missed the boat on this one folks. I guess we're in for a total sh=t show. Does anyone want to bet who Trump/MAGA will blame if things go south in a few more weeks? My bet is anyone but themselves.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. This is a big point. These are not normal times, yet so many are sleepwalking.

There's a lot of brave talk in the media as if "just wait a few weeks and this will all settle out and we can get back to business as usual". A lot of tea leaf reading as to hints from Oval Office conversations leaked partially.

There will be fewer deals with countries than tRump is claiming are imminent. Japan was thought to be the first and now they are put off to June. The deals will be weak sauce, memorandums, letters of understanding, etc., which will be hyped to the heavens. They will at most provide excuses for climb-downs on some tariff taxes.

Even if tariff taxes were completely reversed in the next hour, the damage is already done. Orders and shipping are already down. Christmas goods are in jeopardy already. Businesses would not trust a reversal. Uncertainty rules the air. Trading partners do not trust the US now.

Hanging in the background are labour market disruptions and drastic government spending cuts.

[DFW]

6. Looks like I picked a good time to go back.

I'll be back in Düsseldorf by Monday noon.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

19. And you're so transparent.

[William769]

22. It's highly unusual to see a anti-vax conservative girl on a progressive message board.

But hey! Here you are.

[NNadir]

25. I'd bet money it's under discussion at MIRT.

[William769]

26. Way ahead of you on that.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

28. (Wink, wink)

you would be right.

[NNadir]

38. It's been some time since I have had the time to volunteer for MIRT, so I forgot about the library thing.

I get it now.

[GP6971]

27. Hey!!!! You forgot to add "Again"!,,

[William769]

29. You are right! Again & again & again & again...

[MarineCombatEngineer]

23. Not so unusual.

What is unusual is a Library type of Girl on DU.

[CoopersDad]

24. LOL!

Library Girl, I haven't heard that term in years, literally, but remember too well.

[William769]

30. Trust me she's never left.

Groundhog day.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

31. If I may,

what toppings do you like on your Pizza?
And do you prefer Tombstone or Tostino Pizza?

[William769]

35. I'd go with Tombstone

[GP6971]

37. Today we're featuring the Manager's Special...I'll check

with our Chicago franchise to see what they’re offering.

[MineralMan]

41. Nah. Lots of people you don't expect show up here on DU.

Plus some regulars who seem to show up all too frequently, always with new screen names. Odd, isn't it.

[DFW]

39. No, just overworked!

[Scrivener7]

42. Some people don't live in the United States. I know that's very hard for magas to understand.