Walking Into Spiderwebs: Unpacking the Ukraine Drone Attack -- Lawfare

[erronis]

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/walking-into-spiderwebs--unpacking-the-ukraine-drone-attack
Nicholas Weaver

Beyond mere military damage, the drone attack will usher in a new era of paranoia and disrupt Russia’s internal economy.

In the rapidly evolving landscape of modern warfare, technological innovations have contributed to some particularly stunning moments on the battlefield. Few compare, however, to the feat the Ukrainians pulled off on June 1, in an audacious and historically significant attack on Russian military infrastructure. The attack, codenamed “Operation Spiderweb,” was a massive special operation carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) to target multiple Russian air bases, with a particular aim of destroying Russian bomber aviation fleets. The Ukrainian SBU claims that they struck 41 aircraft, although independent assessments have currently identified only about a dozen targets.

Operation Spiderweb was uniquely clever. Taking a page from the Greeks, the Ukrainians built their own Trojan horses—dummy modular wooden houses, containing special drone carriers inside the “roofs.” These unsuspecting, faux homes were then transported within a few kilometers of the targets, allowing the Ukrainians to penetrate deep inside Russia. Moments before the attack, the roofs were remotely opened and the attacking drones were released, which the Ukrainians operated under long-range control.

Operation Spiderweb has effects that will continue to inflict remarkable damage long after June 1. Russia now has to consider any ISO container a potential Ukrainian aircraft carrier, necessitating significant economic investment and carrying consequences for national morale. The Ukrainian attack is unlikely to be the last, as technological innovations make the possibility of a fully autonomous strike increasingly probable—with implications extending beyond the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

. . .

Operation Spiderweb was just a preview of what’s to come: Russia may be the first country to walk into this spiderweb, but it is unlikely to be the last.

Following:

- Unpacking the Operation
- Immediate Implications
- Looking to the Future
- It is Time to Prepare

[Igel]

1. Some typical baddies are probably pondering this.

Hamas, Hezbollah, the IRG; the PRC vis-a-vis Taiwan. Myanmarian (or whatever the derived adj is) against the Myanmar government.

Pakistan and India. The Houthi. Various AQ and other Ikhwanite groups in the north-ish parts of Africa.

And probably some "lone wolves" of various stripes, since the tech is scalable. Why have a container? Use the back of what looks like an ice-cream truck.