We're not going to intervene in Iran.

[Xolodno]

Because if we destabilize that regime, Russia will intervene on their behalf. That WILL bring on WW3.

On top of that, Iran probably already has the bomb. They just haven't tested or used it as they would get the side eye from Moscow and Beijing.

[617Blue]

1. Plus Assmouth is lazy as shit. nt

[marble falls]

2. Have you shared this with TACO yet?

[drray23]

3. Problem is that rational people are not the ones involved in the decision making

His entire cabinet is a bunch of incompetent bootlickers. Trump is insane, unstable and can change his mind anytime. He won't listen to intelligence reports or diplomats. So, it's entirely possible that we do get involved.

[BadgerKid]

4. If Iran "must not" have a nuke, why take 2 weeks to mull things over?

[Xolodno]

12. News cycle.

TACO is waiting for something else to come up to distract from this. There is no winning in this endeavor. He bypassed his SoD who would have a major hard on to attack Iran and went straight to the Generals. They probably told him if he goes this route, he better find a rock in Wyoming to hide under and that's still no guarantee they won't get him. And one thing about this coward, he's all about self preservation.

[fujiyamasan]

15. Yep, and this time his own DNI has admitted it

This is different from Iraq. That was a very well coordinated propaganda campaign.

This is amateur hour. These clowns aren’t nearly as effective as selling doom and gloom as Powell, Rice, Cheney, et al. And the GOP base isn’t nearly as hawkish as it was back then.

But Trump does lead a cult, and they behave like sheep, so I don’t see that being a problem for the administration.

[karynnj]

28. Oddly, it is also one time where his unacceptable pick works against him

Gabbad is not just pro Russia, but has been consistently against strikes in the middle east.

I suspect that with Trump, it may come down to whether he thinks people will think BiBi by attacking Iran and not eliminating the nuclear program which he knew he couldn't do is now using Trump as a puppet to do what the US had not decided to do.

Will Americans buy that: 1) Israel has already been very successful in what they did. 2) all the US has to do is this one bombing that only we have bombs.and planes capable of doing
3) the bunker busting bomb(s) will definitely work. 4) if the bunker busting works, a ceasefire and end of hostilities is likely. 5) This Iranian defeat will lead to a popular uprising leading to regime change and a west friendly democracy.

Each of these has a big problem.
1) Israel has destroyed much of their military leadership and because of last year's attacks, controls the airspace. However, look at both Afghanistan and Iraq. The US shock and awe were far greater, but even as GWB declared mission accomplished, it wasn't. Look also at Vietnam. All of these countries were smaller and weaker than Iran, but they all became quagmires.

2) it is naive to think that our role could be just this surgical strike, especially in context of everything Israel has done.

3) The facilities are built into a mountain. The best information we have on whether it will work has to be from computer simulations. Modeling the facility and the mountain it is in is
tricky. Could there be unknown crevasses etc that could create a manmade earthquake or other devastating event?

4) see 1) why would the Iranians accept all this destruction and do we think Israel would not continue when Iran is greatly weakened?

5) I didn't believe Cheney or Rumsfeld in 2002. The net affect of the Afghan and Iraq wars, is we lost Iraq as a counter to Iran, the Taliban is back, and Syria is led by people allied with ISiS a decade ago. Given where we are, the neocon fantasies seem less believable now than in 2002.

[EndlessWire]

20. He's not.

He's waiting for the carriers to arrive.

[Liberal In Texas]

6. TACO is getting pressure for Bebe to drop the bomb. Vlad is exerting pressure from the opposite side.

Russia and Iran are good buds. Putin doesn't want the US to do something crazy.

Just my guess but I think Putin's leverage is way greater than Bebe's influence. With this 2 week delay TACO has some time to hope things cool off some and get him off the hook.

[Xolodno]

8. That's what I'm thinking.

In two weeks the news cycle will change or he'll change it himself. Bibi has been frothing at the mouth to get us involved in a war with Iran. He probably thinks this is his last chance. I'm guessing the Generals are telling him he wants no part of this mess and walk away. Iran would make Afghanistan look like a picnic.

Intervening would give no choice but for Iran to turn Tel Aviv into glass. They don't want to do it and thus far have been very measured in their responses. They know being attacked will lite the fuse for WW3. Hell, it was even in a movie about WW3. Bibi is so out of touch he's bitching about puting his sons wedding on hold, meanwhile, his own people and people in Iran are meeting thier maker on something HE started.

[CrispyQ]

29. Maybe he wants to flex some US muscle & show the world he's not really Putin's bitch.

Then again, I'm not sure he knows what's going on from moment to moment anymore. Maybe we should ask, what does Stephen Miller want? Or Jared Kushner? Or the Fox News contingent?

The man's a mess.

[roamer65]

7. If we bomb, I think the Iranians will get North Korean assistance on their nuclear program.

The Russians and Chinese will have NK do their dirty work.

[Xolodno]

10. I'm 99.99999999999% sure Iran already has a nuke.

They just know if they use it, all hell will break loose. And its not in their interest, Russia's, China's or North Korea to use it. Unlike Bibi, they don't have a death wish. They are Shia, not Sunni, they don't think there are going to be 72 virgins when they die.

[fujiyamasan]

13. I really doubt Iran has an actual functional and operational nuclear weapon

Even if they have something, it’s very unlikely to be operational. Any test by now would have been detected by US intelligence. Even deep underground tests would have revealed something.

Remember, just having a nuke doesn’t mean it can be weaponized and delivered easily. And I don’t think Russia is interested in being complicit in a nuke landing in Israel anyway.

[Xolodno]

17. Even a failed nuke to go off...

...is still a dirty bomb. Bibi has been telegraphing he would strike Iran for a very long time. Fairly sure they took notice. Moscow is probably the main advisor for them to hold restraint. Probably reminding them that Israel is the USA's problem, don't make it your own.

[AloeVera]

23. Are they suicidal?

Even if, hypothetically, they have a bomb and the means to deliver it, using it would ensure Iran ceases to exist. Within minutes.

Israel is very much Iran's problem already. Iran only wanted some leverage in negotiations to lift the sanctions so upped the threat by starting to enrich uranium. Not to assure its own destruction.

[roamer65]

18. It's possible.

They wouldn’t use it even if they have it. They would lose in the court of world public opinion.

[Xolodno]

19. Precisely. Bibi is trying to get them to take the bait and they won't.

Everyone in the world knows Israel has nukes. But they still get the benefit of a question mark.

Iran is enriching uranium on a above ground facility that's easy for target practice and say its for a nuclear reactor for energy which has not been built, while they sit on one of the worlds largest deposits of oil...I mean, come on. The real enrichment is probably in some unnamed mountain they have in abundance of and can't be hit.

When your main enemy has nukes, its stupid not to develop your own. But as you said, its a world of public opinion. If any birds are going to fly, it will be from Israel first to turn Tehran into glass. After that, no one will hold them responsible if they retaliate and turn Tel Aviv the same way. It's a Mid-East Cold War and nobody wants to be the first to pull the trigger.

[AloeVera]

24. Yes. And be wiped off the face of the earth in minutes.

Are people forgetting Israel has nukes?

[LudwigPastorius]

21. A nuke doesn't do you any good if no one knows you have it.

A successful test instantly creates doubt in a potential attacker. "Is this their only one?" "If we don't absolutely destroy it in a first strike, will we lose a major city?"

[WSHazel]

9. Russia threw Iran under the bus

Russia is talking, but has no plans nor ability to intervene.

[fujiyamasan]

11. Russia is stretched pretty thin at the moment

I don’t see him intervening directly in Iran. He may give the Ayatollah asylum, as he did with Assad.

What I could see is Putin turning a blind eye on Iran, if he’s given greater concessions and a freer hand in Ukraine. As it is, Trump doesn’t care for Ukraine, so there could be an arrangement here that works for both of them. As usual Ukraine gets fucked. Trump and Putin do whatever they want.

I ultimately think Trump chickens out, because TACO. He really wants his Nobel prize.

[Xolodno]

16. That's what our media says. I've traveled enough to know we get lied to quite often.

But its also bullshit. They aren't stretched thin by the slightest. Putin's own advisors are asking what he's waiting for, just take Ukraine already. But that's the issue, he doesn't want it all, its not worth it in value, only the most valuable real estate and he now has control of most of it. He is literally waiting for a coup in Ukraine to sue for peace.

He told Poland and Romania a decade ago if he should take "what he believes belongs to Russa" he wouldn't be opposed to them taking the rest. He let the Assad regime fall because he proped it up, only to see his incompetence wreck it all over again. Putin is already becoming good buds with the new government. Just like Afghanistan.

We're playing Parchesi while he's playing a multi-week Dungeons and Dragons campaign. Don't forget, when Kazakhstan had a coup, he sent only two thousand troops to prop the old government back up...during the highest part of the Ukraine war. And one thing about Iran, they hate Anglo Saxons more than they hate thier government. I should know, I'm Russian and my wife is Iranian.

[Captain Zero]

22. He will never get a Nobel Peace Prize

But he doesn't know that.

[Arazi]

14. I think we will. I think Traitor can't wait to drop a MOB

I think Russia is too stretched to do much if we participate tbh. Don’t forget Iran was supplying weapons to Russia, not vice versa.

And there’s this (unverified) 🤔

I think it’s likely. If not, this is the most expensive bluff in history. He’s moved multiple carrier strike groups, hundreds of aircraft, several air defense systems, etc. into the region.

The thing that tells me a strike is most likely is that they’re also stocking blood for potential casualties.

— Angry (@angrystaffer.bsky.social) 2025-06-21T02:35:14.019Z

[thought crime]

25. I would guess the same, but for different reasons.

Trump's base doesn't want another forever war, a bunker buster might not work, and TACO.

[Miami Blue]

26. Just a reminder;

https://www.google.com/url?q=https://publicintegrity.org/politics/trumps-organization-did-business-with-iranian-bank-later-linked-to-terrorism/&sa=U&sqi=2&ved=2ahUKEwiirevf1YKOAxUpkYkEHavhBk0QFnoECFUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw28ltWkIOdCopvY6eV7xs2A

[Scrivener7]

27. "2 weeks" does seem to mean he has no intention of doing anything about it.

[usonian]

30. One goes down, they all go down.

Two weeks? his attention span is about 10 seconds, so two weeks must feel like 20 years to him.

Look! A squirrel!

Long ramble here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220407873

[Arazi]

31. Multiple B2 bombers just departed the US headed east

These are the bombers that carry the bunker buster bombs.

Olga Nesterova is an excellent NatSec resource if you’re not already following her

Multiple US AF B-2 Spirit stealth bombers departed AF Base, Mo, 6/21. Local observers spotted B-2s taking off overnight, flight tracking and voice comms indicate multiple bombers flying west. B-2s are only bombers capable of delivering Massive Ordinance Penetrator needed for deeply buried targets

— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) 2025-06-21T16:02:31.354Z

[Arazi]

33. There's far FAR too many assets in the region now

We’re going to be lucky if we just bomb Fordow and the rest of the hardware positioned in the region is only playing defense afterwards - to keep the Straits of Hormuz open and keep American boots on the ground from getting torched.

[madinmaryland]

34. That's based on the TACO principle. Always!!

[Xolodno]

35. Well, this didn't age well....

I seriously misunderstood the stupidity of Trump.

I found an apartment for rent in Cancun for $500 a month, maybe I should leave, too many stupid people in the USA....

[Arazi]

36. In fairness this has escalated FAST

I would have called it as a 50:50 chance until the B-2s took off last night.

CNN: Breaking news now, as President Trump announcing that the U.S. has bombed sites in Iran

— Acyn (@acyn.bsky.social) 2025-06-21T23:57:24.968Z

[xmas74]

38. Yep.

I suspected it yesterday. Can't disguise the sound of several B2s leaving the base in a short time.

[Xolodno]

39. Yeah, I'm ordering humble pie...

...and taking a couple more to go.

[BlueSpot]

40. For saying that, respect