Regime change in Iran....discussion

[Melon]

Background in manufacturing plus have worked multiple times in the Middle East.


China was paying ~30% discount on Russian/iran oil versus market(Brent) due to limited market for sanctioned oil. This is a raw material advantage to China/India in manufacturing.

If this attack from Israel/US can somehow result in a regime change to a more modern/moderate government, and sanctions are lifted, Iran oil could flow into the wider market. China had a $400 Billion deal with Iran for discounted oil. Access to a global market and normalized world relations would pull them out of this Russians/Chinese exclusive relationship. This conceptually would weaken both world powers.

Should Israel keep the heat on and finally push for regime change versus being in this same situation in another 5 years?

[WarGamer]

1. regime change has to be organic...

Has to be Iranians standing up...

Can't be dictated by Trump or Nety...

[Melon]

3. I agree. But for that to really happen the people need to see weakness above.

Gun ownership in Iran is restricted and not allowed for common people outside of special permits. How can they successfully? I know that many citizens hate that government. Government agents blinded 130 woman last year in a protest against the government.

[allegorical oracle]

12. Since 1980 Iran has been doing to its citizens what djt is trying to do to us. Resistance is

tough when the government has the manpower, the weapons, corrupt leaders, a cowed judiciary, and big trucks to haul people away to huge detention camps.

Just last week, DeSantis proposed building a large detention facility in Florida's Everglades. Pity anyone being imprisoned there. Like Siberia -- only hotter and brimming with 'gators and Burmese pythons.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. What War Gamer said.

[Wounded Bear]

4. "Regime change" rarely results in an improvement...nt

[Keepthesoulalive]

5. And what if the next regime is worse than this one.

America has learned from experience ( it’s a joke son)that trying to overthrow governments leads to more death and unrest. That’s the same bullshit excuse every time we tried to impose our will on others and steal their resources.

[Melon]

8. Possible of course. It's hard to imagine a regime that would treat its people worse and go nuclear.

Much of the Middle East is moving more towards western freedoms or ideals. Even Saudi has changed remarkably over the last 10 years. The oil gravy train won’t last forever and they are trying to diversify economies.

[Keepthesoulalive]

9. Afghanistan

[Melon]

11. Nation building is doomed to failure.

Afghanistan is probably roughly the same. Huge war with nothing to show and the Taliban back in power.

But Iran has nuclear ambitions. They want a bomb and they want to destroy Israel. A new regime would have to be without nuclear ambitions.

[Keepthesoulalive]

13. Vietnam

Over fifty thousand dead Americans and countless Vietnamese and nothing to show for it. Korea. We’ve replaced governments in South America and the people have suffered , they are also the immigrants coming into this country and again they suffer. This was between Iran and Israel, it was not our fight.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

6. What WarGamer said.

[Tetrachloride]

7. the entire Middle East is watching.

and the rest of the world

clumsy is what they see Washington

[AntiFascist]

10. Netanyahu wants to restore a (Pahlavi) monarchy in Iran, however...

Pahlavi may not be ‘right man’ to lead post-regime Iran, Conricus tells TML - interview

The Jerusalem Post

The former Israeli military spokesperson cautioned against reinstating a monarchy in Iran, warning that any popular attempt to overthrow the government may be violent

“I don’t think that the outcome of whatever happens should be reinstituting the monarchy in Iran, because that regime was a failed and corrupt regime that didn’t do well by the Iranian people,” he added. “And I think a lot of Iranians my age and older remember that and they don’t want that to be the future and that to be the result.”

Conricus raised a variety of possibilities for a future Iranian state, including an Islamic democracy and “complete Western liberal democracy.” “But whatever happens, it has to be in the hands of the Iranian people,” he said. “It has to be an Iranian decision. It shouldn’t be something that is inserted from abroad, and it has to be a legitimate homegrown solution.”

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-858582

[Xolodno]

14. Fairly sure we just guaranteed no regime change in the near future.

We just gave them a new reason to hate us all the more.

[dalton99a]

16. +1. Their national pride is more important right now

[H2O Man]

15. No.

[Autumn]

17. We need a regime change here in the USA. America first.

[JI7]

18. It's up to the people of Iran to get regime change

I understand most want it but they need to figure out how to do it.

[Bettie]

19. Forced regime change by the US

has always gone so well...sure, that'll make everything ok.

Also, do you really think that the people of Iran (yes, they are people, believe it or not!) will happily accept a Netanyahu-chosen government?

[Arazi]

20. Iran has a two prong leadership structure

The Supreme (religious) leader who runs the IRGC and most of daily life.

And an “elected” (cough) president and unicameral legislature that’s elected every 4 years.

I presume Israel and Trump want to wipe out the religious prong and maybe salvage the rump elected officials but who the hell knows.

Any regime change MUST come from Iranians and not from outside agents.