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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsShe Won: July 2 Virtual Event. 4 pm EDT today. Pass it on and around this not conspiracy stuff
The real odds that Trump won and got the votes like he did are:
1 in 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
She Won, Part III: The Devil Is In The Data
88 counties flipped red. None flipped blue. Trump swept every swing state—each just above the mandatory recount thresholds. What are the odds? About one in never.
https://thiswillhold.substack.com/p/she-won-part-iii-the-devil-is-in
https://events.humanitix.com/she-won Today’s meet up.
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oldmanlynn
(685 posts)I would love if we audited the results and then determined a form of how we can prevent it from happening again because it will happen again in 2026
Silent Type
(10,470 posts)brush
(60,556 posts)as they always have and will. Anyone, especially Dems, who think truump legtimately won evenyswing state is the delusional one.
Silent Type
(10,470 posts)investigative reporter has found anything, and I bet there are thousands looking.
We lost, and need to accept it to win again. And I thought "I was robbed" was an excuse only used by the likes of trump.
brush
(60,556 posts)See post 7.
I'm not naive, Musk money is what did it.
And guest you think Hillary lost too.
Silent Type
(10,470 posts)Don’t think we win by being like trump claiming election was rigged.
brush
(60,556 posts)Silent Type
(10,470 posts)brush
(60,556 posts)Silent Type
(10,470 posts)brush
(60,556 posts)Some seem not. as familiar with recent president election cycles as others. But we move on knowing the rethug party continually cheats.
For example Trump claims he won the 2020 election and his 2016 inauguration was the biggest ever. Don't just believe him when it's convenient.
milestogo
(21,277 posts)They are making sure there will never be a fair election again.
Silent Type
(10,470 posts)oldmanlynn
(685 posts)I would love if we audited the results and then determined a form of how we can prevent it from happening again because it will happen again in 2026.
Some of this data seems to point to Biden supporters that voted in 2020 came out just as strong in 2024 at least in swing states but I don’t know how you have numbers like that unless you did an audit
Oneironaut
(6,059 posts)This one tries to act like it is using irrefutable statistics, while having zero sources anywhere.
brush
(60,556 posts)Our democracy is endangered now that the rethugs have perfected how to bribe, cheat, suppress votes and steal the elections.
They may or may not have Musk money now that Musk is backing off his threat to use his money to primary every rethug who voted for trump's horrendous BBB and start a new party...as trump has let him know he controls all the government contracts Musk's companes count on to keep operating.
I think the DOGE fuck-stuff-for-no-reason Musk is all talk and no action and will back down, just another taco.
Botany
(74,701 posts)He gave a blow job to a microphone on national television and social media, he talked about
the size of Arnold Palmer’s dick in his hometown of Latrobe, PA (btw I know of a family who
had a golf pro @ a club in Youngstown, OH and was good friends with Arnold and he was a very
nice man and a class act), and his act @ Arlington National Cemetery should have lost him
millions of votes.
Trump also said something to the effect, “I won’t need anymore votes.”
brush
(60,556 posts)peggysue2
(12,020 posts)I've never believed Agent Orange won legitimately in either election. The 2024 election had too many 'coincidences' and Agent Orange missteps to be taken at face value.
If the statistical evidence is there it needs to be backed up with hard forensic evidence, the how, the when, the whatever. If possible, exposing the fraud is important but ever more important is countering whatever back doors and machinations were in play. Otherwise, all future elections are meaningless.
As Stalin reportedly said: Those who vote decide nothing, Those who count the vote decide everything.
pandr32
(13,210 posts)He stood there relaxed and danced a little acting like he was a party host. It was strange as hell at during the last month of campaigning. Harris had actual crowds, and massive at that--not people replying to Craigslist ads for 'jobs'.
tritsofme
(19,355 posts)There’s really only two options, either Harris and her billion dollar campaign were just too dumb to figure out the election was stolen from her, despite these internet geniuses figuring it out immediately.
Or the only other option, if you believe this ridiculous conspiracy theory, is that Harris is complicit in the “coverup” of her own “stolen” election, that she is aware the election was “stolen” and for whatever reason has chosen not to say a single word about it.
People who push this delusional conspiracy theory are actually attacking Harris.
Silent Type
(10,470 posts)SheltieLover
(71,407 posts)
Botany
(74,701 posts)…. the overturning of Roe v Wade no matter where a woman’s right to control her own body
was upheld but in the 2024 election that voting block just disappeared.
The work done by thiswillhold.substack.com seems pretty damn solid to me.
SheltieLover
(71,407 posts)Slob barely bothered to campaign and Kamala and Tim were at it non-stop.
Then there are the bomb threats to consider, esp in PA, but I believe other locations as well -- ALL IN BLUE AREAS.
Oh, and the little tidbit where were were constantly told we might not know the winner of the presidential race for days or even weeks. Funny how that was made available immediately, isn't it?
I would bet everything I own PA at the very least was manipulated by fleaon, but likely other states as well. I knew it when it was happening in real time.
Seriously, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out something was VERY wrong. What mystifies me is why our beloved Dems always just sit back and take it... I suppose they didn't know, at least at the time, how it was stolen.
Grim Chieftain
(377 posts)You spelled it out perfectly, point by point. Dems have got to learn to fight the good fight or we won't have a party anymore.
SheltieLover
(71,407 posts)Yet remain quiet... 
Afraid of magats maybe? Dunno.
Sympthsical
(10,729 posts)And it's honestly kind of an indictment of our education system that people look at this hilarious eleventy bajillion kadrillion! claim, and common sense doesn't knock it down out of hand. Just a freshman level course in statistics would put these conspiracy theorists to bed after the most cursory of glances.
I already sourced the Michigan numbers in another thread (using their board of elections and actual journalists).
I know I'm bumping up against the wall of faith rather than reason in trying to combat this stuff, but it really is a shame. That this kind of wild material gets posted here. It brings us down to the 2020 deniers level. It alienates people. It feeds fuel to "both sides" when we are at a moment in democracy where the sides could not be more starkly different.
I miss reality-based.
Silent Type
(10,470 posts)our chances going forward. It’s really disappointing.
Botany
(74,701 posts)And “they” were also running very complex and sophisticated operations to hide what they were doing,
The Digital Janitor: also known as forensic sanitization, it was now being embedded into Eaton-managed hardware connected directly to voting systems. Palantir* didn’t change the votes. It helped ensure you’d never prove it if someone else did.
* Peter Theil
EdmondDantes_
(610 posts)It literally says we can't apply binomial math before then proceeding to do so. And basing the math off one election that was an outlier like 2020 further renders their assumptions even less useful.
It talks about 88 swing counties moving rightward without mentioning that about 90% of counties moved rightward.
stopdiggin
(14,013 posts)using fantastic numbers - and targeting people having no conception ....
SCantiGOP
(14,533 posts)You are doing a disservice by continuing to post this nonsensical conspiracy material. It makes DU, and all of its serious members, look like the crazies we saw claiming Trump won with no evidence in 2020.
Sympthsical
(10,729 posts)Then pointed to it and told you, "The math is all there to see," you'd at least arch an eyebrow, right? Because you'd know that's not right.
But what if you couldn't do addition. Then I wrote 2+2=5 and said "There it is. There's the math." You might nod along.
That's what these people are doing. They're counting on statistical and mathematical illiteracy to get people nodding along - and people want to nod along. They want to believe what they're being told is true.
Not to mention this blog and Palast have used blatantly false numbers. Blatantly false. I cited them in your last thread on this. They literally fabricated Michigan numbers and undervote rates out of thin air.
If they're using fake numbers, contradicting their own methods (as another poster cited above), and creating extremely unlikely claims that don't hold up to even passing examination, isn't that worth raising an eyebrow?
Just the one?
Bernardo de La Paz
(57,015 posts)But 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 is a bogus number to begin with.
The number of possible outcomes is an enormous number, bigger even than the bogus number. So pick any one and the odds are astronomical against it coming out with that particular result.
fujiyamasan
(414 posts)Why would republicans rig just the electoral vote in thw swing states but not the senate races? There were three or four swing states which voted Trump but for their Dem senator.
cadoman
(1,457 posts)I don't have an answer, but perhaps Elon's focus was solely on the executive? Or maybe only the executive race was within the range it needed to be in for him to effect the cheat?
Ms. Toad
(37,283 posts)Any more than it did when Trump kept repeating that he won the election. This nonsense of using statistical odds to prove that Harris won is BS
(Note: I am not suggesting that The right did not engage in such things as vote suppression, restriction on absentee voting, voter purges, etc. Those are real things they did, and are continuing to do - and where we need to focus part of our voting efforts. The rest needs to be focused on choosing a candidate who can identify and address the issue our traditional voting block cares about - and encouraging them to do so. Those are the reasons we lost. And we did lose.)
Traildogbob
(11,482 posts)To believe it was very possible, is how untouchable and confident that they will NEVER see justice or voters end their terror.
The Congress and senate, even judges will not listen to a word of constituents. The Moses Mike Smirk of fuck you all, or “we’re al Gonna die” by Ernst or “they will get over it” by McConnell, or the You can’t touch us, we are here for life altitudes. This makes all of them sure look like they did it before with no consequence and have fine turned the election scam To give them permanent dictatorship, to either bow or, be deported or shot in the streets if we speak Out.
I pray every single GQP criminal at every level are sent to the Florida hell hole, in their 4,000 dollar suits in those cages. Then let God handle them with a CAT 5, like they plan for immigrants. Feed the gators weed for an appetite as trump Noem and DeSatan attempt to flee. Throw in a full sharks for trump.
My faith in fair elections in 2026 are at the level of my belief the House will save us from the Big Billionaire Buyout.
In 2024, all the GQP political signage should have been Real Estate yard signs, “Land for Sell” auction level bidding only. Highest bid takes it all. Multiple bidders in unison are welcome.
All trash will be removed after the sell, and the trash will pay for it.
stopdiggin
(14,013 posts)and represent someone who doesn't know or understand math - or, conversely, somebody that is unethical and intent on deception in their use of same.
On that point alone - the article loses any semblance of credibility.
yellow dahlia
(2,607 posts)
liberalla
(10,595 posts)I think (hope) a recording/or video will be available online later this evening...
Thanks for posting!