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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsScary info from a USGS gauge on the Guadalupe River
Last edited Tue Jul 8, 2025, 02:28 PM - Edit history (1)
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-08166200/#dataTypeId=continuous-00065-0&period=P7D07.04.25, 05:15:00 AM CDT, Guadalupe River was at 1.8 feet
07.04.25, 06:45:00 AM CDT, Guadalupe River was at 34.29 feet
That is a water rise of roughly 4 inches per minute. The word "drastic" would be an understatement.
The only way to have avoided it would have been to sound some type of deafening alarm and immediately force everyone to dash for vehicles.
That's a one-foot rise every 3 minutes. Ever see someone try to navigate an auto through flooded streets? Such a quick rise meant it could have incapacitated motor vehicles in mere minutes, then swept them away in a few more. You might have been safer climbing in a boat with a motor and just waiting.
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marble falls
(67,049 posts)
carpetbagger
(5,310 posts)My home in Kerrville was high and dry other than a few inches of rainfall, the map shows that whole section of town underwater.
marble falls
(67,049 posts)https://fox11online.com/news/nation-world/kerrville-family-picking-up-the-pieces-of-their-lives-after-deadly-flooding
https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/kerrville-residents-mobilize-to-help-community-following-deadly-floods/
Renew Deal
(84,276 posts)The banks were breached in less than 2 minutes, and that was from almost dry creek bed.
pecosbob
(8,038 posts)Where I lived underwriters required living areas be twice the local sea level above the ground, which in our area meant a minimum of eight feet above ground. In areas such as river flood plains in general the same restrictions applied. In other words people only built vacation homes or cabins in these areas. I don't know anything about building restrictions along the Guadalupe, but I suspect the fact that people live there is a result of a relaxation of common sense building requirements.
Just like the wealthy pressured local jurisdictions to allow the reckless building of private residences on the beaches on Galveston Island, I see this partly as a result of people building houses where none should have been built.
God rest their souls, victims and fools alike.
marble falls
(67,049 posts)It's still there, and cheap living, but all the cabins are on stilts.
LeftInTX
(32,811 posts)Usually an uphill walk of several hundred feet will get you out of the floodplain. You don't drive. In one case, a family had water up to their necks and all they had to go was go across the street. These are flash floods, not hurricane floods.
I feel like the area became complacent. It used to flood frequently, but the last two decades have been plagued with droughts and people forgot. A woman who owns an RV park got everyone to safety except one family. RV parks where the owners weren't present had poorer outcomes.
There were camps where they were actively monitoring the weather and they had much better outcomes.
I don't know what happened at Camp Mystic. Mystic also has cabins which are also pretty much on water's edge. I don't see that at other camps. There is often a 100 ft setback.
Camp Mystic has a "hill top"
Patrons may not understand flash flood safety. I do know that trying to drive out of a flash flood is very dangerous. Driving is what killed 10 girls in 1987. If they had remained at the camp, they probably would not have died. Most camps have high ground areas.
Yes, this flood was catastrophic, but something was "off" about how all of this was managed and contributed to the tremendous number of deaths. The last big flood on the Guadalupe was in 2002. People were going door to door. My son worked at a camp. . Nowadays, people check into an AirBnB which is owned by someone who lives in another town. In 1998, we stayed at a cottage next to a house, where the owner lived.
misanthrope
(8,944 posts)-In 1997, Hurricane Danny parked over Mobile Bay for more than a day. Its winds were lower level and it didn't move much, but it had a lot of rain. We got 30-plus inches of precipitation during that event. We had a to build a makeshift dam at the top of our front sidewalk to keep water from diverting from the street's gutter to overwhelm the front of our house. The water in the drainage ditch behind the house (an old tributary creek implemented into the city stormwater system) rose to the top of its roughly 10-foot channel and eased into the backyard. But it never got terribly close to the house.
We also get torrential thunderstorms as part of the regular weather here, like the 6-plus inches we got on May 13, 2024. Certain areas of town are notorious for flooding. Nothing like what was seen in Texas last week.
-I despise how AirBnB has eaten at the sense of community in American neighborhoods. Not only has it driven up rental prices by depleting the market of available places, but it has exacerbated the growing isolation fraying our nation.
obamanut2012
(28,651 posts)Exactly!
malaise
(286,821 posts)Thank you
calimary
(87,116 posts)
LudwigPastorius
(12,971 posts)Sounds like you are saying they just could have walked to safety, but this is swiftly moving water.
If a couple of feet of rushing water can carry off a 5,000 pound vehicle, why wouldn't it do the same to a 14-year-old kid?
LeftInTX
(32,811 posts)Camp Mystic has a concrete cross at the top of a hill.
However, one family did manage to walk in deep water and crossed the street. I don't know how they did it.
I know once you have flowing water, it is very dangerous whether you are walking or driving.
Evacuations need to take place before it gets dangerous.
One camp moved to high ground at 1 am.
marble falls
(67,049 posts)
MagickMuffin
(17,816 posts)Our campsite backed into a hillside with a creek between us and the road outta there.
We immediately packed up and headed home.
And the park did get hit with massive rainstorms.
MagickMuffin
(17,816 posts)I watched the whole video start to finish. Incredible how fast the water rose. Also my understanding is the bridge is 30ft above the ground.
I posted this the other day. The video was recorded to fb, so you have to watch it there.
https://democraticunderground.com/100220462848
BigmanPigman
(53,370 posts)in 2011. I've seen dozens of the videos and that is how it starts. A small wave comes down the street and within minutes it looks like the inside of a washing machine.
Deuxcents
(23,110 posts)The only thing that could have help would be the early warning system that Texas refused to install on numerous times and the experts at the weather agencies that were not there thanks to the insane decision to let them go because of waste and abuse cuts. I should think that this country would be outraged loud and clear because the day after the Texas floods, a tropical depression hit the Carolinas and fires in Oregon and other weather events that were ongoing at the same time. This is just the beginning of the season and they better get NOAA and other personnel back to their positions..right away.
milestogo
(21,326 posts)If you canoe or kayak you already know this. Paddling when the water is high is dangerous because the water is fast and there may be a lot of things submerged that you can't see.
Paddling in fast water is difficult and dangerous. Swimming in it is very dangerous.
I wouldn't even try to drive in it, but if you accidentally drive into a flooded area, get out of your car before it is swept away.
Paladin
(31,086 posts)The ground was rock-hard, very little in the way of rainwater absorption. Such a tragedy.
LeftInTX
(32,811 posts)The Guadalupe last had a major flood in 2002.
When we stayed in Kerrville in 2022, the river was completely dry. We were just relieved that our place had a pool.
We also stayed in Hunt in 2017 and 2021. The only reason we were able to swim was because locals made small dams to retain water.
San Antonio recently lost 12 people on an interstate access road during 6 inches of rain. Ongoing construction that began in 2022 likely lead to a wall of water that pushed cars off the road and into a creek. I seriously wonder if drainage studies were performed on the interim construction? The area was not barricaded during the flash flood. It's like emergency management just didn't think a wall of water would come barreling down the area. The area is not low lying all and the bridge is about 15 feet tall?
malaise
(286,821 posts)We hadn’t had a Cat 3 come right through the island like that in decades.
Not only was collective memory gone but so too were the building standards hence there was massive roof loss.
marble falls
(67,049 posts)... and wait the next one out in Marble Falls, TX! Our home is way above a flood level. Though the creek out back has gotten to 18' once. We were still 12-14' above it.
malaise
(286,821 posts)😀
calimary
(87,116 posts)Most definitely.
Ms. Toad
(37,332 posts)The way to avoid it would have been to have responded to the flash flood warnings and urgings to move to higher ground when those warnings were issued, sometime between midnight and 1:30 AM.
By 5:AM, it was too late - BUT a proper response to the warnings shortly past midnight would have provided ample time to evacuate.
misanthrope
(8,944 posts)You could be correct, but I have yet to come across evidence that anyone at that no-electronics camp had access to those alarms. I was speaking to their specific circumstances, avoiding the most dire consequences from their first visual notice that the water was rising rapidly.
That isn't a comment on the prudence in not having someone monitoring the situation, or having weather radios, or whatever. I was simply going on what I have heard confirmed.
The whole situation is regrettable and terrible.
Ms. Toad
(37,332 posts)You assumed the first warning came after the flash flood began. It didn't. The warnings increased during the prior day, and a get to higher ground/evacuation notice was made just after midnight - giving them ample time to move to higher ground had they had proper safety precautions in place.
A facility with 700 campers and dormitories on the banks of a river known for flash floods has a responsibility to make sure it is attentive to the danger (just as they should have lifeguards on hand if they allow swimming, emergency contact numbers for parents, etc.) It's just basic safety. Especially when the campers are not allowed any means of communication with the outside world.
The local county government and the camp, together, should have plans for notification and evacuation when the camp is in the flood plain of a river known for flash floods.
"If they were aware of them" shifts responsibility for the safety of a camp in the flood plain away from those who are most responsible for ensuring it to a hope they accidentally found out about weather warnings
misanthrope
(8,944 posts)My initial assumption was that they would have all been alerted earlier by electronic means, just as most of the people in Kerrville proper would have been. Then I read, as you reiterated, that no communication with the outside world was allowed at Camp Mystic. I heard no further detail on the extent of their communications isolation. For all I know, that could have gone as far as all camp counselors being electronics-free, with only one radio or phone at the facility being accessible for emergencies.
I am not saying that was a responsible decision, were it the case. I agree that emergency plans were obviously inadequate.
I was more struck by the terror, panic and helplessness of the situation. That is what I was trying to convey.because that was the final experience of so many of those poor people.
Ms. Toad
(37,332 posts)Would have been a likely ineffective last minute siren and a mad dash for the cars.
That doesn't address the very real terror they felt but that terror isn't the result of there being no alternative. It is the result of people in charge making reckless decisions about the very real threat putting a camp in the floodplains posed, without creating a viable safety plan.
It's kind of like schools in tornado alleys deciding not to do tornado drills, or to identify the safe places to wait out a tornado. I grew up in places where there are tornadoes, and more recently have spent hours in the basement of the school where I was faculty waiting out tornadoes, after risking my safety to clear the floors of students who preferred to hang out on the second or third floor. Nature can be destructive - and those in it's path who are responsible for others must take steps to minimize the potential for loss of life.
misanthrope
(8,944 posts)I don't recall frequent drills but the few we had taught us to head from the classroom into the hallway then try to "get small at the base of the wall."
Ms. Toad
(37,332 posts)But what you remember is the point I was trying to make: Tornadoes were enough of a risk that your school had a specific plan that it communicated to you in a way you remember decades later.
misanthrope
(8,944 posts)is because it seemed so unsafe compared to the power of a tornado. Now I realize the preparation's chief purpose was to get us away from the potential glass shrapnel from the windows in the classrooms.
But all of us had seen houses torn apart by tornadoes, or the channels of shattered trees that remained for years in the hillsides where twisters had churned up and over during violent storms. We knew if one hit the school itself, it was going to take some good fortune to get through it unscathed.
Ms. Toad
(37,332 posts)And coming through unscathed is the luck of the draw for many natural disasters. But the point of planning - and communicating the plan - is to put everyone in the best position possible to take advantage of the luck, should the worst happen. It's why you are instructed to hunch down against the seat in front of you and hug your knees if the plane is going down - even if it is unlikely you will survive, those charged with your safety have made a plan to give you the best opportunity to survive.
Those little girls sleeping in the flood plain never had a chance, because no one bothered to plan for what to do if the flood plain flooded.
marble falls
(67,049 posts)... at the middle school.
These folks were in a very rural area. They had no warning. Their county judges and councils are a bunch of GOP cowboys.
marble falls
(67,049 posts)... by telephone and by Burnet County. So we got three warnings, twice - July 3rd late night and July 4 very early in the morning. There are at least 10 low water crossing in town that are either dry or 10' deep. One a block up from our property.
I've never given them my smart phone number but mine went off as well as my wife's.
This is not difficult system to develop. Especially if the cheapskates on Marble Fall's Council could get it done.
I lived in Pender, Ne, a small town in the middle of corn and soy bean fields. Our warning came from the noon siren attached to the school house, right behind my house.
It used to be used to let farmers in the field know when noon was with a 10 second blast. When the tonado skipped over town in '93/'94, I could hear the tornado and it blocked out the siren that blew during the entire event. We had some flooding but never anything serious.
Buckeyeblue
(5,965 posts)You would think with being in an area where you could have flash floods, you'd have a plan, a playbook, for how to handle a worst case scenario. A previous poster discussed moving to high ground. But they need some sort of plan.
I honestly think this is all on the camp. They should know their area. They should know the risks. And they should have trained all their workers on a worst case scenario.
Melon
(584 posts)Remember the time. I believe the flood warning came out around 4:30. Mother Nature is cruel. There are stacks of dead wild animals that couldn’t escape. Probably a 100 crushed cars. That river is normally shallow. You don’t have boats really, they float in in tubes.
electricmonk
(2,011 posts)for another view. The spike during the flood is insane. From that page too you can backtrack and look at other gauges in the area.
https://water.noaa.gov/gauges/HNTT2
edit to clarify this gauge is for a different part of the river