Warnings were out, and the flood gauge predictions were out (and accurate) 2-3 hrs before people got hit, depending where on the river they were in the early part of the flood before dawn. There were normally 2 NOAA people working at that time, but they had 3 more working that night because they knew this was going to be bad. I live out in the area, and I can tell you personally that we had warnings. But not everyone heeds them, especially if they are from out of town or simply sleep through them/ignore them before dawn.
We know where 1 failure point occurred, though - the Kerrville City Manager. He had the resources to send first responders to actually help people get out, and he had the warnings in time. He declined to act on them, and has been making circular excuses about not wanting to make it more dangerous by getting vehicles out on flooded roads, etc. I suspect he was partly penny pinching, and partly not wanting to “ruin” the town’s big riverside 4th of July party by upsetting tourists. He apparently didn’t need to consult with anyone before making the call. Of course Chip Roy then yaps that this was a reason to make government smaller. What, smaller than one dude with 100% of the power, who made the call that got people killed?
The other places to ask questions are Hunt and Ingram, much smaller towns that were hit before Kerrville, with far fewer resources. Again, we know warnings were out, but we haven’t heard whether any officials out there took action, or gave it a pass, or whether they had competent emergency planning that included mass evacuation from the multiple camps in the area. Camp Mystic is out there, not in Kerrville. Ingram’s city government has been notoriously dysfunctional for years. First responders alone couldn’t have gotten 750 kids out of a camp that was cut off, but they could’ve helped get kids to higher ground faster or, if buses were called out (difficult, though maybe not impossible, since the ISD has them with private drivers who may not respond) they might have been able to evacuate those most at risk. Honestly, I doubt that due to the numbers of kids versus the number of vehicles they might have rallied from the small school district.
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