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Donald Trump Won't Be Saved by Maps
David Dayen
As Americans have physically sorted themselves along ideological lines and as Big Data has dug into voting preferences on practically a house-by-house basis, it can be compelling to suggest that cartographers hold a skeleton key to U.S. elections. That’s definitely the assumption underlying the Trump administration’s red-state redistricting tour, which has already stormed through Texas, has dates booked in Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and possibly Indiana (whose leaders still sound indifferent on moving ahead), and is lying in wait for a Supreme Court go-ahead to shred other parts of the South.
In short, Trump and his allies are trying to erect impregnable walls around their own unpopularity; you can call it an attempt to steal the midterm election. But the universe of voters changes from year to year, and even in today’s polarized political environment, individuals change their minds. Exercises in mapmaking can amount to fighting the last war, with old information not fit to the current circumstances. That’s particularly true with new maps that are largely predicated on Donald Trump’s 2024 overperformance, particularly with Latino voters.
How much of an overperformance 2024 was, or whether it sparked a new realignment in American politics, is the key question. “Democratic performance writ large is almost certainly going to improve from 2024,” said Katherine Fischer, director of Texas Majority PAC, which seeks to elect more Democrats in the state. “To what extent, anyone who tells you is guessing or lying.”
It follows that slotting seats into red or blue corners based on one potentially ahistorical election is a dangerous play for Republicans, especially with the smaller, more engaged electorate that in increasing numbers opposes this president and his actions. The national political environment can overwhelm even the most data-heavy efforts by politicians to choose their voters.
In short, Trump and his allies are trying to erect impregnable walls around their own unpopularity; you can call it an attempt to steal the midterm election. But the universe of voters changes from year to year, and even in today’s polarized political environment, individuals change their minds. Exercises in mapmaking can amount to fighting the last war, with old information not fit to the current circumstances. That’s particularly true with new maps that are largely predicated on Donald Trump’s 2024 overperformance, particularly with Latino voters.
How much of an overperformance 2024 was, or whether it sparked a new realignment in American politics, is the key question. “Democratic performance writ large is almost certainly going to improve from 2024,” said Katherine Fischer, director of Texas Majority PAC, which seeks to elect more Democrats in the state. “To what extent, anyone who tells you is guessing or lying.”
It follows that slotting seats into red or blue corners based on one potentially ahistorical election is a dangerous play for Republicans, especially with the smaller, more engaged electorate that in increasing numbers opposes this president and his actions. The national political environment can overwhelm even the most data-heavy efforts by politicians to choose their voters.
https://prospect.org/politics/2025-08-29-donald-trump-wont-be-saved-by-maps/]
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