JPMorgan Boss Issues Ominous Warning About U.S. Economy

[Zorro]

The CEO says he’s “far more worried than others” about an impending crash.

The United States could be on the verge of another recession, says JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

The businessman, 69, said in a Wednesday interview with Bloomberg Television that government spending, inflation, and Trump’s trade wars could lead to an economic downturn as early as 2026.

“I hope for the best, plan for the worst,” said Dimon when asked about a potential recession. “You don’t wish it, because certain people get hurt, but it could happen in 2026.”

The same day, Dimon told the BBC that he was “far more worried than others” about the U.S. weathering a stock market correction. He estimated there is “about a 30 percent chance” that one occurs in the next six months to two years.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/jpmorgan-boss-jamie-dimon-issues-ominous-warning-about-the-future-of-the-us-economy/

[dalton99a]

1. It is the big beautiful Trump recession.

[madinmaryland]

3. Hopefully it doesn't become the big ugly trump Great Depression where everyone ends up living in trumpervilles.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. More bearish sentiment (still contrarian) this month than last few. More comparisons with 97-2000.

I don't know what it means. I don't know (and suspect nobody knows) what the signs of rolling over look like in this or any other markets at highs. I don't know if this level of sentiment compares to stages of previous markets. I don't know whether to be contrarian about the contrarians; contracontrarian? Not the same as bullish. There is a divergence in sentiment with a little of the big money coming out of the stock market but retail investors still acting on the "buy the dip" impulse.

There are gentle rollovers, sharp drops, extended doldrums, double tops, rare triple tops, and slippery slopes. One can make the case that the steady rise, more or less, in the market is the opposite of irrational exuberance so why panic now? On the other hand, there is frothiness with IPOs, circle financing (financing customer purchases of chips), AI momentum, energy stocks (shovels in a gold rush), buyouts, mergers.

The US economy had a lot going for it: Biden and the Fed had brought inflation down. Nobody should have been surprised that the stimulus that 2020 (Democratic Congress) and 2021 (President Biden) economic conditions and societal responsibilities (employment) required ... that the resulting inflation occurred and took a few years to deal with and tame. There were no great adverse economic situations aside from supporting Ukraine. Supply chain issues were smoothed out. Low unemployment.

But with everything tRump has done, the economy now requires everything to go steady as she goes, no knocks, no black swans, no earnings disruptions, no disruption of the main narrative (Mag 7), no supply shocks, no wild policy changes, no disruption to government employment or expenditure. The resiliency of the Biden economy is replaced by the brittleness of the tRump economy.

Instead we have a big labour supply shock (finely balanced low fire but low hire), a big import supply shock, wild tariff taxes, wildly disruptive domestic enforcement action, notable decline in dollar value, ballooning deficits. And there is now some fog partially obscuring everyone's vision of the economic dashboard due to the shutdown.

One can't predict black swans, but we can tell that certain times are more sensitive to the effects of a black swan than other times.

[RT Atlanta]

4. and for no goddamned reason either

tariffs (taxes) dont work