Crockett is running for TX Senate: Will win primary, will be "Elsie Fayed" in the general

[DUU]

Good news / Bad news:
You wonder how to combat this.
Jasmine Crocket WILL ANNOUNCE her TX Senate run at 430 PM today
Bad news Exposed: There is an underground Rep. movement to pour $$$s into her primary then use more $$$$ to defeat her in the general election, believing she can’t get support of independents.

Reps are scared of Colin Allred as more likely to sway independents and some pro choice Reps.
Same thing they did to Elsie Fay Higgins on Dallas City Council in 1984.

Is there a way to stop this?

[Torchlight]

1. Crockett will rocket to the top

The over-ground support for her can far outweigh and succeed against any veiled support for another candidacy.

[pinkstarburst]

7. Crockett is going to play about as well in a statewide race in Texas

as AOC would do in the general election in 2028. I think the world of both of them, and they would do well when it's just democrats voting, because they bring all the fire, but they will get creamed if they have to try to get moderate and independent votes. Texas is still a red state.

[Torchlight]

9. I hear what you're saying.

I just don’t find long-range political predictions about a race so diaphanous very useful, so I’m not ready to take any of them seriously yet.

[MichMan]

2. Allred dropped out, so he isn't relevant to this race

[LuvLoogie]

3. Texas is going to be Texas. America is going to be America.

Vote for Jasmine, though.

[tanyev]

4. A lot of GOP money, time and effort is going to be spent in the Cornyn vs Paxton vs Hunt primary.

Here’s hoping Crockett will be able to stride in on the smoking ruins.

[pinkstarburst]

5. Wish she wasn't running, to be honest

I do not believe she can win the senate seat in Texas when she has to try to get independent votes. I will be voting for James Talarico in the primary, who I really like, and who I think has a much better chance of getting the Hispanic vote, and the independent vote.

I honestly do not understand why we have so many big names vying for the same seat. Colin Allred did the right thing by dropping out and running for something else. We need to spread out our talent. I like Jasmine Crockett, but this is a mistake, and as a Texan, she will not get my support in the primary.

[Midwestern Democrat]

14. Honestly, I don't believe any Democrat can win statewide office in Texas at this time. However, the Democratic nominee

for US Senate could have a positive or negative impact on the party's chances of winning certain US House races - so I think "Do No Harm to the down ballot" ought to be a consideration in who is nominated.

[Torchlight]

10. What's the current shelf-life of the "foreseeable future"? nt

[Torchlight]

21. Sounds serious

[Gimpyknee]

22. Duhhhh... You think?

[JI7]

8. Someone posted that Allred is not running for Senate

and will run for some house seat.

[Midwestern Democrat]

15. If Allred had asked for my advice in 2024, I'd have told him to keep his House seat - I think for a Democrat in Texas

the wisest path is to try to become a star congressman in the US House - Beto should have done the same thing. When Allred ran for Senate in 2024, I assumed he hated the House and didn't care about coming out of 2024 empty-handed - but apparently this wasn't the case.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Is there a way to stop Republicans spending heavily to defeat her in the general? No.

I don't understand your point about Allred as being more likely to sway some pro choice Reps. Crockett seems pro-choice to me as well.

[pinkstarburst]

13. If we're talking about swaying independents in Texas

a former football player and a man has a much better chance than a Black woman. Let's just be honest.

However Allred is out of the race. James Talarico is still in the race, and he also has a better chance of winning votes from Hispanics, independents, and moderates in Texas (Texas is a majority Hispanic state) than a Black woman.

It's the same reason everyone keeps hammering the point on this board over and over and OVER that we don't want to run another woman for president in 2028 because it's a surefire way to lose. Texas is a red state. Beto couldn't win and he's a white guy. James Talarico will probably lose too, but he has a better chance as a Hispanic man.

Nominating Crockett in the primary would be as foolish as democrats coming out in 2028 and nominating AOC for President. Guaranteed loss. And I say that as someone who really likes AOC.

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. A Texas poll implies it won't really matter who the Dem candidate

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/senate

The leading 2 Republicans are Cornyn and Paxton. The 3 leading Dems against them:

Paxton 49, Crockett 47
Cornyn 50, Crockett 44

Paxton 49, Talarico 46
Cornyn 48, Talarico 45

Paxton 49, O'Rourke 46
Cornyn 49, O'Rourke 46

That's no guarantee.

[obamanut2012]

12. Link to any of what you stated as fact?

Allred isn't even running for Senate, he's running for the House.

Again, sources?

[RetiredParatrooper]

17. Though I admire her greatly...

...IMO, it would be better that she stayed in the House for now. Watching her demolish Republicans in there are things of beauty. The BBBBBB thing against MTG left Comer befuddled as hell.

[Brother Buzz]

19. Her Texas house seat is gonna be gerrymandered with a big fucking red crayon

Running for the Senate is on of those ‘Fifty percent of everything, or a hundred percent of nothing’ situations.

[blogslug]

18. There go my hopes she would run for TX AG

I'm sad. I like her and Talarico. I don't want to choose.