Bettors wagered $54 million on Khamenei's death. Now they're not getting paid.

[Zorro]

Traders on the prediction-market site Kalshi assumed they had won a fortune by correctly betting on the Iranian leader’s demise. The ensuing scandal has thrown a spotlight on the “dystopian” rise of gambling on real-world events.

When he learned Saturday about the killing of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Israeli-American business executive in New York was excited to cash in.

On the prediction-market site Kalshi, the executive — who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to concern over what his friends would think — had placed two bets, totaling $3,460, that Khamenei would be “out as Supreme Leader” by March or April 1. His Kalshi app placed green check marks next to his bets, indicating he’d won payouts worth more than $63,000.

Minutes later, however, Kalshi froze the $54 million trade for everyone who bet on that scenario, saying the site doesn’t allow transactions “directly tied to death.” The change triggered an online uproar, as Kalshi users flooded social media to argue the site had unfairly robbed them of winning bets.

“I was booking my trip to Courchevel,” the French Alps ski resort, he said jokingly to The Washington Post. “Then they changed the rules … and everybody got screwed.”

The outrage has intensified scrutiny into the explosive rise of prediction markets, which run like traditional sportsbooks but allow people to gamble on elections, international affairs and real-world events.

https://wapo.st/4slNDyG

[LonePirate]

1. If there was a policy against events tied to deaths, then the event should have been shut down long ago.

Sites like that need more regulation as this seems like an instance where they made up a rule after the event in order to prevent payouts. I’m sure they would not have refunded those bettors if the date had come and gone without his death, causing the bettors to lose.

[Kid Berwyn]

2. "I was booking my trip to Courchevel..."

“...Then they changed the rules … and everybody got screwed.”


I hate it when that happens.

[RANDYWILDMAN]

3. I would never bet on that site again

The betters rule, if you don´t pay up you are garbage and not worth playing with!

I already know who Kashi supported in the last election and you now know as well.

Just like Trump if the rules don´t suit the outcome you want....change them

Thats sucks for people.

I played a dead people game in 1996 or 97 and I guessed a bunch luckily and i won, the person who ran the game got super mad and the next year just destroyed everybody at it and we all quit after that. It was kinda weird thinking that you were betting on people dying.

[TommyT139]

4. Liz Warren's got her eyes on these guys.

Let's get back into power and give Dems the tools to throw these jerks in jail, for non payment of taxes if nothing else.

[Celerity]

5. In December 2025, Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara became the youngest self-made woman billionaire ever at age 29.

If they keep fucking people over like this she might well not be a billionaire for long.

[PCIntern]

6. "Mally no show"

was the name of the proposition of the Vegas betting line in the Clint Eastwood starring film “The Gauntlet”. He was assigned to escort a female prisoner from Vegas to his hometown and the Mob was set to kill her and of course him.

When he saw it on a tote board is when he knew he was in trouble

[Miguelito Loveless]

7. They changed the name,

but it is still gambling. When it was gambling, there were rules, laws, and standards about paying up. By calling it a "prediction market" none of those rules/laws/standards apply. They can renege on a bet and keep your money.

[Torchlight]

8. Days like this I think our cravenness is exceeded only by our greed

Its common to accept either with a wink, a nod and smug smile.