Timothy Snyder -- Appeasement at Munich

[ancianita]

In 2025, the 1938 appeasement of Hitler in annexing Czechoslovakia is baked into the EU's DNA.

...the events in Czechoslovakia in 1938 help to clarify the stakes of the war in Ukraine.
In the first case, a timeline led to a world war, because unnecessary concessions to Hitler created opportunities he would not otherwise have had.
The Czechoslovaks, of course, were not chiefly to blame. Had Britain and France not joined Italy and Germany in the Munich agreement, it would have been far easier for Czechoslovakia to resist. In my view, Czechoslovakia still might have done so, and in so doing would have prevented a world war. But it is important to see that the great powers also bear responsibility.

Had Czechoslovakia acted to prevent a world war, it is very unlikely that anyone’s imagination would have reached that far. It is very unlikely that anyone would have thanked to Czechoslovaks for preventing what did not happen. History would have recorded instead a Sudeten War, or a Central European War, or something along those lines. This is worth bearing in mind. We do not appreciate what the Ukrainians have prevented. We lack the imagination, or perhaps the generosity, that is needed to see our own interests.

...One way to consider the current state of events is this: the Ukrainians have kept us in a kind of suspended 1938, a 1938 that has lasted three years. The year 1938 was far from ideal, but it was much better than 1939, and world war. By resisting, essentially on their own, the Ukrainians have created a timeline that would not otherwise have existed. The rest of us, although we live in that timeline, have done little to deserve it.

Whatever the Trump administration’s other motives in appeasing Russia, that lack of appreciation is among them. Trump himself, his vice-president, the man who holds power (Musk), and their milieux in general all tend to treat Ukraine as a kind of irritant, as a problem rather than as a solution. They are very far away from understanding that Ukraine has held off chaos and war well beyond its borders. Or, perhaps, in some cases, they blame Ukraine for that very achievement, because what they want is war and chaos.

However that may be, Trump’s policy, at least in the last few days, has been a race to appeasement. He has tried to make it normal to speak to Putin. His administration has publicly said what Ukraine has to do. And, again, whatever the motives, the operative logic is one of appeasement: granting land to the aggressor, reducing the sovereignty of the country attacked...

Russian diplomats have been trained to believe that 1938 was directed against the Soviet Union, and thus that they were the true victims — which is pretty much the Putinist interpretation of history in general. The people who instructed the American team is unlikely to know what happened in Munich in September 1938, sad to say.

But one does not need history, to see the essentially logical problem of appeasing Putin now.

Russia is the aggressor. Russia says openly that its war aims extend far beyond what it has achieved now.
Russia has an interest in a pause in the war because it is doing poorly and because its leaders believe, reasonably, that a ceasefire will end US support of Ukraine, distract the Europeans, and make it harder for Ukraine to mobilize its population and resources a second time for a later Russian strike.
Russia ... has an interest in American leaders putatively granting it Ukrainian territory, including territory which it does not even occupy.
This sets a precedent that international law does not matter and/or that Ukraine is not a legitimate state protected by such law.

Appeasing Russia, if it leads to Russian victory now or later, could very well create the conditions for a world war. A Russia that destroys Ukraine, in effect with American assistance, would be a very different country. Ukrainian resources, like Czechoslovakia resources in 1938, would make of the aggressor a much stronger power. This ...must be considered.
Ukraine has the best army in Europe, and the most battle-hardened one. It is the only country in the West to have fought a major war in this decade. It is innovating faster than others can copy. All of this, and the agriculture, and the minerals, and the ports, can be lost to Russia.
And then, after a time of course, Europe faces a far more powerful country, one made for war, one whose leaders believe that war works.

A Russian victory, especially one enabled by American diplomacy, opens the world not just to further Russian aggression in Europe, but to wars of aggression everywhere.
It also almost certainly means nuclear proliferation, since future aggressors and those who fear them will both learn the lesson that nuclear weapons are necessary.

The Russo-Ukrainian War is horrible, and should be brought to an end. But appeasement is an apparent shortcut that leads to longer and bloodier conflict. It would not be that difficult... to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. The logic is simple: make things harder for Russia, and make things easier for Ukraine.

At the moment, American policy is the opposite.

Musk-Trump is making it harder for the Ukrainians to keep us in our extended 1938... The war cannot actually be halted without Ukrainian and indeed European participation. The desire for a quick resolution is more likely than not to lead to unexpected consequences, for which the Americans will likely lack the patience.The desire for a quick deal leads to a haste that overlooks important aspects of the problem.

Given the general level of distress across the federal government, it is hard to imagine that the Americans are very well prepared for these meetings — although the Russians will be. The Americans cannot get official planes off the ground. Lower-ranking officials are right now trying to qualify the more radically appeasing concessions that Trump and his secretaries of defense and state have made in public. The American vice-president was going to meet with the Ukrainian president at Munich...now perhaps he is not. There is a distressing “who knows” quality to all of this.

But however things turn out, the first American move under Musk-Trump has been to endorse appeasement... that choice pushes us one step towards 1939.

11:35am Munich time, 14 February 2025

https://snyder.substack.com/p/appeasement-at-munich

[bronxiteforever]

1. Kick. Thanks for posting.

[ancianita]

2. Absolutely. Since I've

read his book, On Freedom, I have to say he's got the clearest map of what our freedom and future is moving toward. He speaks Ukrainian, Russian, Polish, German, has children and wants a future of freedom for all children.

I've subscribed to him on Substack because I'm certain that he helps us clearly see the serious historical moment we're in...

81% of Americans polled today (announced by Nicolle Wallace) want the U.S. to support Ukraine. That's us. We're being sold out by an inside oligarch and a felon to an international criminal and his Axis of Evil.

[bronxiteforever]

3. Wow that poll gives me hope in the American people.

Thanks for that little bit of hope!

[ancianita]

4. Is the poll valid and reliable? Depends on the pollster. But for now I'll take it.

The point is that we mustn't be afraid of everyday Americans. Since his first win in 2016, the felon has never had the hearts and minds of 77% of the nation. We're being dragged by oligarchs into their power vision by their hired destroyer of our government. We The People are still here. We need to remember that.

[bronxiteforever]

5. That is a very good point to remind me of.