Democrats Build Early Vote Advantage Ahead of Georgia Supreme Court Elections
Democrats are attempting to make history in next Tuesday’s Georgia Supreme Court elections by defeating two sitting incumbents. A victory in either race would mark the first time in more than a century that a sitting Georgia Supreme Court justice has lost reelection. Although Republicans currently hold a 9-0 majority on the Georgia Supreme Court, Democrats could potentially gain a 5-4 majority by 2028 if they sweep the races in the next two elections.
Former President Barack Obama and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris have formally endorsed Democratic nominees Miracle Rankin and Jen Jordan, who are seeking to unseat incumbent Justices Charlie Bethel and Sarah Warren. Both justices were appointed by former Republican Gov. Nathan Deal. The incumbent conservative justices have historical precedent on their side, and the support of Gov. Brian Kemp, who remains highly popular in the state. With the election coming shortly after the Louisiana v. Callais decision, both liberal candidates have emphasized voting rights as a central campaign issue. Abortion rights have also been a major focus, especially their opposition to Georgia’s six-week abortion ban. Even before Early Voting started, Democrats believed the races are winnable because of strong Democratic turnout in recent primary elections, a favorable national environment for the party, and the potential for increased Democratic engagement after the Callais decision narrowed the reach of the Voting Rights Act, particularly among Black voters.
VoteHub has been closely tracking early voting in Georgia. Because Georgia does not have party registration, general-election analysis typically relies on racial composition and precinct-level voting patterns as proxies for partisanship. In primary elections, however, voters choose which party’s ballot to request, making this a rare Georgia election where early vote data can be analyzed directly by party.
Democrats have enjoyed very strong early voting turnout, building a roughly 145,000-vote firewall by primary ballot choice. In the 2022 Georgia primary, 56% of votes were cast on Election Day. Given the increased attention around primaries in both parties, especially the Georgia Supreme Court races, we expect the Election Day share to be somewhat lower this year. Still, we expect overall turnout to easily exceed 2022 levels. For Republicans to pull even in ballots requested, we estimate they would need about a 28-point shift in partisanship from absentee/early voting to Election Day, which would be unusually large for Georgia. For context, that shift was about 20 points in the 2022 primary, 7 points in the 2024 general election, and 9 points in the 2025 general election.
https://votehub.com/2026/05/15/democrats-build-early-vote-advantage-ahead-of-georgia-supreme-court-elections/