Vote splitting could give Conservatives wins in ridings with as little as 35% of the vote

[Fiendish Thingy]

I live in Nanaimo on Vancouver island, and our current MP is NDP. Before her, our MP was one of three Green Party MP’s in parliament. My riding is extremely progressive, with both provincial and federal offices held by the NDP (except one term with the Green MP) for many years.

This election, both the liberals and greens are running candidates in my riding, even though polling shows neither of them will pull more than high single digit proportions of the vote, diminishing the proportion for the current NDP incumbent, and enabling the conservatives to win with as little as 35% of the vote.

The ethical and strategic move would be for the Liberal and Green candidates to drop out and throw their support to the NDP. This happened a few days ago in a riding in, IIRC, Ontario, where the NDP candidate, polling in the low single digits, withdrew from a race where the Liberal and Conservative candidates were neck and neck.

There are more ridings like this across Canada, and folks need to realize these vote splitting ridings are Polievre’s most likely path to victory.

For more information on my riding, but with a broader context for the whole election, go to:

Stopthesplitnanaimo.ca

[OneBlueDotS-Carolina]

1. Remember Nanaimo well...

From my days as a Tubber, meaning bathtub racer. Frank Ney the Mayor, in his oversize tub & pirate outfit. Good luck with the election.

[GardenGnome]

2. Same here

And I was dismayed and annoyed when Paul Manly entered the race, even though I would normally vote Green. Now what? Vote the incumbent who's polling at 18% according to Victoria Buzz. Vote Liberal to support Carney? Corfield is listed as being 4% behind Manly. Or vote Manly and pray? According to Victoria Buzz, "As of this publication, the Nanaimo–Ladysmith electoral district is a tossup between the Greens and Conservatives." I agree with the site you posted, somebody or two somebodies needs to put Canada ahead of their own ambition and pull out of this race.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. I voted for the NDP incumbent

To me that makes the most sense, and should be the strategy in all ridings where vote splitting could give the cons a seat.

[GardenGnome]

4. That was my original intention

Even after Manly entered the race, but with Baron only estimated at 18% to Manly's 27%, I'm afraid to vote what should have been the safe vote. I usually vote early, but now I'm waiting till the last minute to see if the situation changes. It's driving me crazy. If you see any updated info, please post it here. I will do the same.

I do like your idea though. In ridings where vote splitting is likely, a policy to vote the incumbent would save us all from a lot of stress. But I don't think that's generally agreed upon right now.