'Wasted votes'? How seat projections differ from daily polling
Seat projections for Canada’s upcoming election can seem inconsistent with public opinion polling, which has shown the Conservatives closing the gap on the Liberals as voting day nears.
Despite some surveys showing the Liberals only leading by a few percentage points heading into the weekend, several recent projections suggest the party is poised to form a majority government.
The key to understanding that discrepancy is distinguishing between popular support and vote efficiency, said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist with Nanos Research.
“What’s critical to remember is that in the last two federal elections, the Conservatives garnered more votes – Andrew Scheer garnered more votes than Justin Trudeau, Erin O’Toole garnered more votes than Justin Trudeau,” Nanos told CTV’s Trend Line podcast on Friday.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-2025/article/wasted-votes-explaining-popular-support-vs-vote-efficiency-going-into-election-day/