USA Bond Crisis - Joe Blogs

[TexasTowelie]

In this video I talk about the recent increase in USA Bond Yields, which have risen at fastest rate since 1982, which has been caused by the huge selloff in Bonds, which is the largest sale since 2019, look at which countries are the largest holders of these Bonds and discuss the impact on USA debt costs and the USA Economy.

Chapters:
0:00 Intro
2:49 BONDS
4:31 S&P 500
5:21 USA DEBT
6:42 YIELDS
8:47 SELLOFF
11:05 HOLDERS
15:23 DEBT COSTS
16:56 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
20:33 SMILE

[progree]

1. Here's a decade long example: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury fund only 1.40%/yr since 1/2015

and volatile. A good graph of that volatility, e.g. Vanguard IntermediateTerm Treasury Admiral VFIUX
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vfiux/performance

(Below is through 4/11/25)

plus a table of total annual returns by year. Negative numbers are in parenthesis ( )
2015 1.61%
2016 1.29%
2017 1.67%
2018 1.10%
2019 6.39%
2020 8.31%
2021 (2.19%)
2022 (10.34%)
2023 4.18%
2024 1.48%
YTD 2.10%

which shows some of the volatility and the piss-poor returns.
Since the beginning of 2015, its total return is cumulatively only 15.39%
(A $10,000 investment grew only to $11,539 in those 10.2738 years)
which comes to an average annualized total return of only (1.1539^(1/10.2738) -1)*100% = 1.403%/yr

And as far as purchasing power, it is way underwater:
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
1/2015: 234.747
3/2025: 319.615
So, consumer costs rose 36.15% during that period.
The purchasing power of the $10,000 bond portfolio is now only $8,475 (=234.747/319.615 * $11,539), a 15.2% decrease.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Summary & COnclusion excellent, the wheels are coming off

of decades of loose Fed Policy (not Powell's fault, must be said, these are Greenspan's and Bernanke's babies), all at a time when Trump won't have a clue what to do, and won't have an economic team that can handle any of it. We are cooked 7 ways to Sunday.