August CPI preview: Inflation expected to stay sticky as Fed readies rate cut

[mahatmakanejeeves]

August CPI preview: Inflation expected to stay sticky as Fed readies rate cut

Allie Canal · Senior Reporter
Updated Thu, September 11, 2025 at 2:42 AM EDT 3 min read

August's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show inflation remained sticky last month, with headline prices rising at a faster clip than in July.

The report, due Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, will be closely watched for signs of how much President Trump’s tariffs are impacting consumer costs. So far, the impact has been limited, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could kick off its easing cycle as soon as next week.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect headline CPI to rise 2.9% year over year, up from the 2.7% increase seen in July. On a monthly basis, prices are estimated to rise 0.3%, a touch firmer than July’s 0.2% gain.

On a "core" basis, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, the annual inflation rate for August is expected to tick up to 3.1%, unchanged from July. Core prices are projected to climb 0.3% month over month, also matching July’s gain, which was the strongest monthly rise in six months.

{snip}

[progree]

1. Turns out they were right about all of the numbers, except for one -- the regular CPI came in at 0.4% month-over-month

rather than the 0.3% predicted. Actually it was 0.3825% increase (according to the actual index numbers), so it rounded up to 0.4%. Had it come in at just .0326% less, it would have rounded to 0.3%.

BumRush's LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143528031

The core came in at 0.3469%, which rounds to 0.3%. Had it come in at just 0.0032% higher, it would have rounded to 0.4%