Russia's Economic Freefall: Broke, Alone, and Shrinking. Poor Mother Russia - Econ Lessons

[TexasTowelie]

Hi Mark here, an economist, here I examine three plausible economic scenarios for Russia’s future amid rising global instability, using a vivid metaphor: Wile E. Coyote’s slow-motion fall off a cliff—legs spinning, suspended in denial—mirroring Russia’s capital structure distortions, demographic collapse, and mounting international isolation.

But this is no dark fantasy.

It’s a sober unpacking of how secondary global responses—weakening labor markets, recession-induced oil price declines, protectionist tariffs—converge to expose the fragility of Russia’s economic model. As Ukraine (the Road Runner) accelerates integration and adaptation, Russia finds itself midair, held aloft by inertia and illusion. The ground is gone; gravity is catching up.

I map:

The “Fortress Russia” scenario of managed decline,

The “Selective Integration” path of eastward trade pivots, and

The “Fiscal Fracture” crisis outcome if oil and sanctions both turn sharply against it.

As the rock falls after the Coyote, so too do the delayed consequences of years of extractive policy and demographic decay. This video breaks down why even neutral global forces—like recession and the reordering of supply chains—can become catalysts for irreversible structural damage to the Russian economy.