538: Bernie projected to win IA, NH and NV

[Tiggeroshii]

IA: Bernie: 13, Biden: 12
NH: Bernie: 11, Biden: 6
NV: Bernie: 14, Biden: 13

Go Bernie!


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/iowa/

[m-lekktor]

1. Nate Silver must hate having to report this.

Thoughts and prayers to him and other Bernie Derangement Syndrome sufferers.

[lapucelle]

2. The first graphic on your link's landing page

[Tiggeroshii]

5. Yeah

Still projected to win nationally

[TexasTowelie]

3. Then South Carolina occurs and it is Biden 26 and Sanders 16.

That puts Biden ahead going into Super Tuesday.

[Quixote1818]

11. South Carolina is now trending towards Sanders

And if he wins the first 3 states, that publicity is like gold. He may be unstoppable after that.

[TexasTowelie]

14. No, it isn't.

Even with the Post & Courier poll that came out, Biden still had a five-point lead over Sanders. That is not trending towards Sanders despite the spin over that one poll. I'm using the same RCP averages that the OP uses to predict victories in the first three states.

[Go Vols]

17. +1

[James48]

4. Momentum to start!

My civics teacher always talked about two things-

1, the power of the incumbent letter after the name (I) on Judicial ballots, and

2. The power of momentum. Once a ball is rolling, people want to latch on to a winner. God help Bernie catch on with the Big Mo! Momentum!

[DaDeacon]

6. I've tried to explain this to many people

The first three contest set a tone. If Biden gets rolled in these contest S.C. will not be that certain.

[Tiggeroshii]

7. The only reason 538 predicts Bernie winning NV is because they think

He will win IA and is polling strong in NH. Bernie has always polled behind in NV so they take that into a account a little bit too.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

8. Bernie's catchin Joe in S. Carolina. Why so many are desperately bashing Bernie... he's CRUSHIN IT!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

9. Bernie's got the Big Mo alright... LOVIN IT!! FEEL THE BERN BABY!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!

[Peacetrain]

12. He better win NH.. because he took it so large last time.. if its even close he will look like he is

losing air.. this is much bigger for Bernie than anyone else..

[LanternWaste]

13. IA and NH are indeed, Bernie's to win or lose.

And if he doesn't win big in two of those three states, his campaign will lose any steam it otherwise could have gotten, and my guess is we'll be witnessing the beginning of the end of the BS run. Again.

[Quixote1818]

15. It's about to get super nasty for Sanders and not from Republicans

if this happens. Bank on it.

[booley]

16. Biden's entire campaign is based on him winning

Time and time again, even here on DU I see "People aren't enthusiastic about Biden but they will support him". Because they think he can win". I doubt many outside the die-hard Biden camp even know what Biden's policies are. But people support Biden because they think he can win. The presumption he can beat Trump is all Biden has.

IF he can't win the first three states and do so decisively, that casts serious doubt on whether Biden can win.

And no, saying he will most definitely win the vote of people who always vote Democratic in one deep-red state the Dems haven't' won since Jimmy Carter isn't going to counteract that. That is whistling past the graveyard.

I won't say who is going to win. 2016 should have taught us all the risks of predictions and polls. But I will say people like a winner. IF Biden cant show he can win, things will shift. Saying he can win is all Biden has.