Let's talk about Republicans dropping hundreds of millions to try to hang on to the Senate.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Republicans dropping hundreds of millions to try to hang on to the Senate.

The Republican Senate Super PAC is reserving airtime in eight states, and it's dropping $342 million to do it. The Senate Leadership Fund selected states it sees a chance of winning. The states they're spending the money on tells us a whole lot about how the Senate sees its chances.

Three of them are Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Okay, so those are battleground states the GOP hopes to win and unseat a Democrat. It's good to have goals, I guess, but those ad buys are normal.

North Carolina and Maine are another two. North Carolina is competitive because while it's a Republican seat, the incumbent is leaving. Maine is a Republican seat, but it's Senator Susan Collins and she doesn't have an energized base, which is concerning.

Then it gets interesting. The other three states are Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio. Trump won Alaska by about 13%. He won Iowa by 13%. He won Ohio by more than 11%. The Senate Super PAC feels the need to actively defend three states in which Trump won in a landslide.

SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham put out a statement saying, "Senate Leadership Fund is better positioned than ever to execute an aggressive offensive strategy to protect and expand the Republican Senate majority. SLF's historic investment will help elect strong Republican senators across key battleground states and ensure that Chuck Schumer and his party remain in the minority.

I mean, that's putting a happy face on things, but the spending sends a different message to me. This seems like a pretty clear indication that the Senate feels it needs to defend deep red states. When you get to the breakdowns of where the $342 million is being spent, it looks even worse.

The biggest spend isn't going to pick up a Democratic seat. $79 million is being spent to defend Ohio.

There's also something missing that's interesting. There is no big Texas spend with the situation between Texas AG Paxton and Senator Cornyn. That's surprising. The runoff is widely expected to get messy. If Paxton comes out on top, the seat might be more vulnerable than they currently anticipate. Or maybe a deal's already been worked out behind the scenes. But so far, Trump hasn't endorsed anyone yet.

At the same time, this is the initial ad buy. They can easily do follow-ups. The money for the midterms is starting to flow. And there's another thing that's missing from the political landscape.

It's not really clear what Senate Republicans plan on running on exactly. They don't have a lot of legislative wins. The tariffs they co-signed are unpopular. Their immigration war went sideways. The real war they co-signed is unpopular. The economy is bad and getting worse.

And while that might seem like good news for those opposed to the Trump agenda, it may mean that some Senate Republicans lean more heavily into the culture wars and scapegoating marginalized groups. It might be a nasty midterm unless they just go ahead and admit Trump's a lame duck now.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.