What the polls say after the first presidential debate

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. Well, individual polls are not predictive

Trends can sometimes give a clue, however ,

The shift in the DFP poll is just 2-3 points, likely within the MOE.

Leger polls have a well known RW bias (NY Post!), and IIRC, they were part of the October 2022 flood of shitty GOP polls that manipulated 538’s average/forecast model and caused Nate Silver to lose his job due to his failure to exclude these flawed polls from the averages.