80 %+ of the trucking industry voted for Trump, but they will also be among the first victims of the trade war.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

41. Supply shortage wave will roll from LA/SFO starting about May 25, reaching NYC about June 5.

April 2: "Liberation Day"
April 2 night: Libation Night
April 3: Liquidation Day
April 9: Tariffs vs China imposed, quickly ratched up to 145%

Everything in transit is theoretically exempt but might get slowed down. Businesses did what they could to expedite in advance but it was limited.

Cargo Bookings for May are down 40% vs May 2024. Basically that is for orders that had to be placed after April 9. Takes about 45 days for order to go Chinese factory to dock to ship to ocean to LA to sit on dock. 55 days to get to NYC by ocean or add 10 days from LA to NYC by truck including lading and off lading.

April 10 + 45 days --> May 25.
April 10 + 55 days --> June 5

Timing of course is approximate, but expect there to be a period of about two weeks to go from sort of normal to noticeable spaces on shelves and another two weeks for it to become undeniable and much remarked on.