What If Trump's Iran Gamble Pays Off?

[justaprogressive]

Once again, Benjamin Netanyahu has manipulated a U.S. president into not just accepting his military decisions, but following his lead. When it came to Israel’s brutal annihilation of Gaza, Joe Biden went along passively. But Israeli attacks and assassinations in Iran produced in Trump nothing so much as envy. Trump signed on with relish. And just as Israel’s bombing of nuclear sites in Iran proved a distraction from Bibi’s political woes and raised his popularity, American military action might do the same for Trump.

It’s now clear that Trump and Netanyahu, despite deceptions signaling a U.S. preference for diplomacy, were in cahoots all along. The first deception was a planned negotiating session between the Iranians and Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff, scheduled for Sunday, June 15. The Iranians reasonably assumed that, with negotiations pending, no Israeli attack was imminent. Netanyahu then launched his attack early Friday.

The second deception was Trump’s announced two-week pause to see if diplomacy could work. This of course was cover for the “bunker buster” attacks that Trump had already set in motion. All we have is Trump’s word that this was successful, though the lack of radiation leakage could mean that Iran’s enriched uranium was moved prior to the attack.

Partly to reassure the isolationist wing of MAGA and partly to deceive the Iranians yet again, Trump is describing the weekend attacks as a one-off and inviting Iran to trust diplomacy yet again. They would be fools to do so, but what choice do they have?

One option for Iran is to attack U.S. military bases in the region. That would bring even more U.S. retribution, and it’s not clear how much capacity Iran has left.

https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2025-06-23-what-if-trumps-iran-gamble-pays-off/