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Tom Rinaldo

(23,147 posts)
5. Yes, redistricting for partisan advantage can backfire in a wave election...
Sun Aug 24, 2025, 06:44 PM
Aug 24

...But in 2026 the probability is much higher for a blue wave election than a red wave election. In the first off year congressional election of a president the opposition party almost always picks up a significant number of seats AND polling now indicates that generic Democrats hold a 5 point advantage over generic Republicans for Congress. That indicates a Democratic wave of some sort. If it is big enough Republicans may screw themselves in Texas by shifting more of their seats from safe to probable Republican instead, where they can end up as upset wins for Democrats.

It is very unlikely that Democrats would lose any seats in MD in 2026 due to any redistricting they might engage in now .

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