The Employment Numbers Are being Fudged, So Says Jerome Powell

[progree]

35. Does this include the 911,000 downward revision over the period April 2024 through March 2025

which was announced in September
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143526633

which includes 9 or 10 months under Biden's term depending on whether or not you include January 2025 in that (I do because Biden was president for 2/3 of the month, and more importantly, the survey that produces the payroll job numbers is conducted in the week that includes the 12th of the month -- that's well before the Inauguration date of January 2025).

They didn't break it down by month, and it's my understanding that they never will. They have some system where they target getting an accurate March 2025 total jobs number, and they don't use a month-by-month changes process to get there. So we will never know how much of the 911,000 revision occurred in the Biden months and how much in tRump's 2 months.

It looks like your link ( https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm ) is just the monthly revisions that occur each month for 2 months, for example a May number is revised in the June report, and again in the July report.

And so it doesn't include the annual revisions like the one that was announced in September and will be finalized (likely with a revision) and made official in February 2026 with the with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release.

Re: some new posts in the thread -- one may have all kinds of reasons to believe that tRump era numbers are being fudged. But it is FALSE to claim that Powell said the numbers are being fudged (or even implied that), at least based on the WSJ article in the OP (see my #22 ) . But unfortunately some people insist on misleading their fellow progressives.