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Democrats now have to win the House vote by 4 points due to Republican gerrymandering [View all]
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-05-10-dem-house-pop-vote-threshold-gerrymanderingThe Democratic Party’s path to a majority in the U.S. House this November just got significantly narrower. On Friday morning, May 8, 2026, the Supreme Court of Virginia invalidated the redistricting referendum voters passed in April that would have given Democrats up to 4 additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (though they will likely pick up two anyway in a “blue wave” midterm).
Writing for the majority, Justice D. Arthur Kelsey declared the referendum "tainted" by a technical constitutional violation about when a general election actually happens — specifically, whether it's a single day or the whole multi-day voting process that includes early voting. Virginia's constitution requires the General Assembly to pass a proposed amendment, hold an intervening House of Delegates election, then pass it again. Clear enough, right?
Well, not according to Kelsey. The Commonwealth argued the relevant election was just Election Day (Nov. 4, 2025), so the legislature's Oct. 31 vote cleared the bar by four days. The Court rejected that, holding that an "election" encompasses the combined act of casting and receiving early, absentee, and in-person ballots across the entire voting window. Because early voting had begun Sept. 19, the Court ruled the Oct. 31 vote came in the middle of the intervening election rather than before it, thus invalidating the amendment and the new map.
So now we are left with the following map of the number of seats targeted by Democrats and Republicans (drawn by The Downballot’s Stephen Wolf), in eight states that have new maps in place for 2026.
Writing for the majority, Justice D. Arthur Kelsey declared the referendum "tainted" by a technical constitutional violation about when a general election actually happens — specifically, whether it's a single day or the whole multi-day voting process that includes early voting. Virginia's constitution requires the General Assembly to pass a proposed amendment, hold an intervening House of Delegates election, then pass it again. Clear enough, right?
Well, not according to Kelsey. The Commonwealth argued the relevant election was just Election Day (Nov. 4, 2025), so the legislature's Oct. 31 vote cleared the bar by four days. The Court rejected that, holding that an "election" encompasses the combined act of casting and receiving early, absentee, and in-person ballots across the entire voting window. Because early voting had begun Sept. 19, the Court ruled the Oct. 31 vote came in the middle of the intervening election rather than before it, thus invalidating the amendment and the new map.
So now we are left with the following map of the number of seats targeted by Democrats and Republicans (drawn by The Downballot’s Stephen Wolf), in eight states that have new maps in place for 2026.
After losing their map in Virginia, Strength In Numbers estimates Dems are now down 6 seats in the House from mid-decade + post-VRA redistricting. Could lose 2-3 more across the South.
— G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris.com) 2026-05-11T13:56:26.664Z
Dems need to win the House pop. vote by 4 to win the majority of seats. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-05-10...
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