My observation is that the cycle goes something like this: Democrats tend to improve the economy and make people's lives better, but they do not get rewarded for this -- instead, people just assume that things won't get any worse, and this causes a decline in turnout for Democrats. Why go out and vote if things are generally fine? When this happens, the Republican playbook of targeting some out-of-favor minority group works to rile up enough of their voters that they overcome Democratic apathy. During this phase of the cycle, Republicans also tend to get an assist from disgruntled third-party left-wingers who have their own cultural and economic issues with the Democratic Party.
But then once Republicans get into power, they massively overreach, both on cultural issues where they expose themselves as truly cruel and heartless, and also typically by tanking the economy thanks to tax cuts for the rich and bad economic policies. After a while, voters realize that their financial security is in danger, and the cultural issues lose traction because voters have a reason to come out en masse to protect their own wallets. They give power back to the Democrats, who fix the mess the Republicans have created, and then the cycle repeats.
If this is true, then we are at a point in the cycle where the cultural issues, which crested with the anti-trans campaign of 2024, will start to lose traction. Trump's approval rating on the economy is going through the floor, and his administration is the most corrupt of all time. People can feel this administration's policies affecting their own personal finances, and as things get worse, they can see clearly that Republicans are not going to make things any better. Voting for the status quo means voting for a continuing decline in America's economic fortunes.
As usual, Republicans will continue to run their bigoted cultural campaigns -- the problem (for them) is that they are at the wrong point in the cycle for those issues to help them win.
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