Consumer sentiment sours amid trade war, recession fears: Survey

[progree]

3. 12 month inflation expectation: from 4.3% to 4.9%, 5 year inflation expectation: from 3.5% to 3.9% (34 year high)

12 month inflation expectation: from 4.3% in February to 4.9% in March,

5 year inflation expectation: from 3.5% in February to 3.9% in March

A headline says that the inflation expectation is at a 34 year high
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-sour-on-economy-as-inflation-expectations-hit-highest-level-since-1991-145631578.html

Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again in March as one year-inflation expectations jumped to 4.9% from 4.3% the month prior. Just two months ago, consumers had only expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year.

Long-run inflation expectations, which track expectations over the next five to 10 years, climbed, too, hitting 3.9% in March, up from 3.4% in February. This marks the highest level of long-term inflation expectations since 1991. Also in the release, the expected change in unemployment hit its lowest level since the Great Financial Crisis.

There's a graph of the 5-10 year inflation expectation too at the finance.yahoo link above, as well as one of the Consumer Sentiment that's better than the one embedded below because it goes back to 2003.

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Someone in another thread asked why the consumer sentiment was still above 50%?

Ans: It's not a percentage. Rather it's some score that is indexed to 1966 = 100

http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Chart: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf

Here's a better one from Yahoo Finance:


Here's one going back 50 years:
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsh.pdf

Another going back to 2003 (22 years) is in this article:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-sour-on-economy-as-inflation-expectations-hit-highest-level-since-1991-145631578.html

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As for the market, A headline at Yahoo Finance says the market's climb today is relief that a government shutdown is likely to be avoided

but still the S&P 500 is headed for its 4th weekly loss, according to another article there.

https://finance.yahoo.com/

I've been tracking for several days the S&P 500's close each day in the Economy Group and comparing to some key dates,
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111699775
e.g. in part:

I only follow the S&P 500, as it is by far the best measure of the three (Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq) of the total U.S. stock market. But see bottom of this post for a graph of the DOW, which closed at 40,814, down 537 points (1.3%) for the day).

The S&P 500 closed THURSDAY March 13 at 5522 down 1.4% for the day,

and down 4.5% from the 5783 election day level,

and down 7.9% from the inauguration-eve level,

and down 6.1% year-to-date,

and down 10.1% from its all-time closing high of 6144 on Feb 19.

At the moment of this posting 1:56 PM CDT, with just over an hour to the close, the S&P 500 is at 5624, up 1.85% for the day so far

so subtract about 2% from all of the above numbers if the trend continues for the next hour, e.g. down about 2.5% from the 5783 election close, down 5.9% from the inauguration-eve level, down 4.1% year-to-date etc. ...