U.S. payrolls rise by 228,000 in March, but unemployment rate increases to 4.2%

[progree]

10. The ADP numbers are "actuals" for about 20% of the private workforce. How they estimate the other 80%

I have no idea.

The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm

the ADP National Employment Report and ADP Small Business Report are derived from ADP payroll data representing 460,000 U.S. clients and nearly 26 million workers
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-2021-adp-national-employment-121500533.html
(4/4/25: the page no longer exists but trust me, or check archive.org)

Google: ADP vs. Bureau of labor statistics job numbers

Another important difference is that the ADP is private workforce payrolls, while the BLS's headline payroll jobs includes government jobs.

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier

In July about 14.7% of employees were in government jobs

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The ADP report is often way different than the BLS report, even when comparing private workforce numbers. Under all kinds of administrations.