Consumer confidence for May was much stronger than expected on optimism for trade deals

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: CNBC

ECONOMY
Consumer confidence for May was much stronger than expected on optimism for trade deals

PUBLISHED TUE, MAY 27 2025 10:07 AM EDT
UPDATED TUE, MAY 27 2025 11:31 AM EDT
Jeff Cox
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
@JEFF.COX.7528

Consumer optimism got a much-needed boost in May on hopes for trade peace between the U.S. and China, according to a survey Tuesday.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index leaped to 98.0, a 12.3-point increase from April and much better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 86.0. ... Much of the positive sentiment, according to board officials, came from developments in the U.S.-China trade impasse, most notably President Donald Trump's halting of the most severe tariffs on May 12.

"The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards," said Stephanie Guichard, the Conference Board's senior economist for global indicators.

May's rebound followed five straight months of declines. Consumers and investors had grown sour on economic prospects amid the intensifying trade war that Trump has launched against U.S. global trading partners, with China a particular target.

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Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/05/27/consumer-confidence-for-may-was-much-stronger-than-expected-on-optimism-for-trade-deals.html

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Edited to add: this is not a report that is released by the Department of Labor or the Commerce Department. It comes from a non-government, something called the Conference Board.

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-May-2025

US Consumer Confidence Partially Rebounds in May

Latest Press Release
Updated : 2025-05-27

Consumers’ pessimism about the future moderates after surging in April

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 12.3 points in May to 98.0 (1985=100), up from 85.7 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose 4.8 points to 135.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—surged 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was May 19, 2025. About half of the responses were collected after the May 12 announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.

“Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows. Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months and regained optimism about future income prospects. Consumers’ assessments of the present situation also improved. However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.”

May’s rebound in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, with the strongest improvements among Republicans. However, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence in all age and income groups was still down due to previous monthly declines.

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