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0rganism

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36. Even the best-quality poll has a chance to be an outlier

Wed Jul 2, 2025, 01:49 AM

Jul 2

It's not Stelzer's fault, nor her organization, not even the data itself. It's the nature of the beast -- done correctly, there's a high chance a randomly-sampled poll result is within the margin of error, but it's never 100%. There's always a very small chance you collected data showing a truly wacky result. The simplest explanation is that Stelzer's poll was an unfortunate outlier of that sort. It happens.

As this is part of the mathematics upon which polling itself is based, it's also an iron-clad defense against the kind of allegations levied by F47's flock of legal vultures, which may be why they dropped their case.

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BREAKING: Trump Drops Lawsuit Against Iowa Pollster Ann Selzer [View all] mahatmakanejeeves Jun 30 OP

She's the one who had excellent data. Showing a Harris win. Irish_Dem Jun 30 #1

There is no way that Harris won Iowa. reACTIONary Jun 30 #6

How do you explain Stelzer's data? Irish_Dem Jun 30 #9

Polls aren't 100 perfect accurate. JI7 Jun 30 #10

Except the "adjusted" "exit polls" done on only 11 states which pretend to tell us how every small demographic voted lostnfound Jul 1 #29

It happens. mahatmakanejeeves Jun 30 #11

Research design and methodology have improved a great deal in the last 80 years. Irish_Dem Jun 30 #13

Ask stelzer how she explains it. reACTIONary Jun 30 #16

How do you explain all the other polls showing Trump leading comfortably? Jose Garcia Jul 1 #32

Even the best-quality poll has a chance to be an outlier 0rganism Jul 2 #36

Trump doesn't want the Data coming out in open court angryxyouth Jun 30 #14

Yes. His goal was to make her fold and run. Irish_Dem Jun 30 #15

I think you're right angryxyouth Jun 30 #17

Yes today they have very sophisticated computer analysis of research data. Irish_Dem Jun 30 #19

I would be interested in knowing angryxyouth Jun 30 #23

I will take a look thanks! Irish_Dem Jul 1 #24

I'm not sure I understand.... reACTIONary Jun 30 #20

Trump Drops Lawsuit Against Des Moines Register. elleng Jun 30 #2

Damage done. She should sue for Frivolous Litigation. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Jun 30 #3

Absolutely. Victims of these frivolous, meritless lawsuits should counter-sue. Midnight Writer Jun 30 #22

" Trump Drops Lawsuit Against Iowa Pollster Ann Selzer" MLWR Jun 30 #4

He doesn't want that discovery obamanut2012 Jun 30 #5

perfect thought. bluestarone Jun 30 #7

The dismissal isn't about discovery. onenote Jun 30 #12

Thanks! Good analyses. reACTIONary Jun 30 #18

A good day for Ann BeyondGeography Jun 30 #8

Selzer's attorney tells me there has been no settlement. LetMyPeopleVote Jun 30 #21

There would be no settlement where a case is dismissed without prejudice onenote Jul 1 #27

Because that poll was accurate and Krasnov does not want the truth exposed. Botany Jul 1 #25

Then why did he file the lawsuit in the first place? onenote Jul 1 #26

Because suing people, governments, universities, news organizations, businesses, and so on is his ... Botany Jul 1 #28

As predicted -- he has re-filed in state court. onenote Jul 1 #35

Dropped in federal court and moved to state court. sinkingfeeling Jul 1 #30

Exactly what I predicted he would try. See post #12. onenote Jul 1 #34

trump was losing in federal court and went to state court before new SLAPP law went into effect LetMyPeopleVote Jul 1 #31

Trump drops federal lawsuit against Iowa pollster, refiles in state court LetMyPeopleVote Jul 1 #33

Hmm, smells like someone's cooking TACOs 0rganism Jul 2 #37

Judge rejects Trump's bid to dismiss suit pending in federal court over Des Moines Register '24 Iowa poll LetMyPeopleVote Jul 2 #38