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Wiz Imp

(6,579 posts)

43. Monthly revisions are almost always fairly modest. When the revisions become significant, it usually

Fri Aug 1, 2025, 11:20 AM

Aug 1

signals a turning point in the economy. It's too soon to say definitively but it certainly appears we may have reached the end of the latest expansion period and may be entering a period of decline.

Note, all the numbers will eventually be revised to match universe counts (mostly taken from data almost ALL employers in the US are required to report every quarter to their state's unemployment insurance departments indicating how many employees they have each month). Those revisions get reflected with each January's data released at the beginning of February (this process is called benchmarking). However, initial (incomplete) total jobs numbers from UI records for first quarter become available in August. Since 2018, BLS has always issued a report on those initial estimates of benchmark revisions with a release in mid- August. For some reason, this year's release isn't scheduled until September 9. Here is what last years 2024 Preliminary Benchmark Revision release looked like.

https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2024/2024-preliminary-benchmark-revision.htm

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Bernardo de La Paz mahatmakanejeeves

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U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower [View all] BumRushDaShow Aug 1 OP

It's only going to get worse gab13by13 Aug 1 #1

The updated article noted the reported "147,000" job increase last month was revised down and was actually "19,000" BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #3

Who would have ever thought the the Felon in the White House would put out rurallib Aug 1 #5

tRump and WH do not "put out" the BLS numbers. Revisions have been frequent for decades. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 1 #44

You do know that tRUMP is going to drive out the neutral bean counters at the BLS? wolfie001 Aug 1 #78

He's going to try (viz. firing chief of BLS today, after I wrote). We haven't seen the business world react yet. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 1 #79

You're always measured in your responses and very intelligent and level-headed wolfie001 Aug 1 #80

Thank you for your kind words. Mass action is in our hands. I too am hoping for a Blue Storm Surge 2026. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 1 #81

Go Blue Go!!! nt wolfie001 Aug 1 #84

And May revised down to 14,000 jobs Johnny2X2X Aug 1 #7

Yup BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #13

No, we don't need so-and-so numbers to keep up with population growth because we don't know population growth. mathematic Aug 1 #14

It is true that nearly 1 in 5 workers in the US labor force is foreign born. The irony with the immigration wedge PatrickforB Aug 1 #28

The US does need population growth for a while to deal with and care for the retiring boomer cohort Bernardo de La Paz Aug 1 #45

And yet when supposed economy numbers came out, some people here argue LisaL Aug 1 #15

You do have the fact that BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #20

No "just" about it. BLS is professional and no toadies parachuted in. You have NO evidence. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 1 #46

So, like Trump, you don't believe the new numbers? onenote Aug 2 #94

Fake news my friends - sarcasm of course chicoescuela Aug 1 #12

Totally unfair! Why is everyone turning against him! Hugin Aug 1 #27

always the victim. what a pos chicoescuela Aug 1 #40

Give it a month or so for payments to be missed... Hugin Aug 1 #26

I was thinking about this this morning. Cuts in Medicare, ACA, and food programs underpants Aug 1 #29

I think Rebl2 Aug 1 #34

The massive cuts to Medicaid now will drastically degrade the level of care for Medicare as a secondary effect. Hugin Aug 1 #36

Those cuts only kick in after the 2026 midterms, by craven design of the magabots in Congress who think they are smart.n Bernardo de La Paz Aug 1 #47

The cuts to the CDC, NIH, and research/medical training have already started... Hugin Aug 1 #49

Medicare is also being cut substantially NickB79 Aug 1 #77

I think you are incorrect about the "no thought for ramifications" part. niyad Aug 1 #57

hmmm Skittles Aug 2 #92

"Sorry, all our fault." - Krasnov (r-felon) & G.O.P. Doormats, Inc. BoRaGard Aug 1 #2

Finally the jobs report shows the terrible impact of Trump's policies. Wiz Imp Aug 1 #4

I wonder where are all the college and high school jobs that always occurred during the summer? LiberalArkie Aug 1 #56

As I understand it, this still does not include the shit that DOGE did rurallib Aug 1 #6

Correct. There's over 150,000 Federal workers who took the deferred resignation option. Wiz Imp Aug 1 #8

In addition to what Wiz Imp wrote BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #16

How is Krasnov fucking with the numbers? ShazzieB Aug 1 #72

you are right I was wrong rurallib Aug 1 #75

No worries! ShazzieB Aug 1 #76

We are now seeing definite signs of stagflation, as feared. . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 1 #9

This right here is bad bad as I understand it. The worst type of economic downturn Cheezoholic Aug 1 #23

Stagflation comes from supply shocks. Tariff taxes are a supply shock. Labour deportations are a supply shock. Bernardo de La Paz Aug 1 #25

"above the June total of 14,000" - they neglect to say that that was revised down from 147,000 Prairie Gates Aug 1 #10

Powell said on wednesday that lowered immigration was resulting in lower workforce size (growth) mathematic Aug 1 #11

That might impact/be related to the Laborforce Participation Rate BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #18

Oh absolutely, the LPR for immigrants is higher than native-born. mathematic Aug 1 #24

I put much more weight on the PRIME AGE LFPR (age 25-54) progree Aug 1 #33

Well you have a party ready to bring back "child labor" BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #37

LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs - progree Aug 1 #17

Thank you again for taking the time!!! n/t Cheezoholic Aug 1 #35

YW 😊 progree Aug 1 #41

I seem to recall that Biden's#s mcar Aug 1 #19

We can check. mahatmakanejeeves Aug 1 #22

No, not really. 2021 had nearly all positive revisions. 22, 23, 24 had more negative revisions than positive mathematic Aug 1 #39

An excellent link. Discussion too. Thanks. NT mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2 #91

Monthly revisions are almost always fairly modest. When the revisions become significant, it usually Wiz Imp Aug 1 #43

Interesting observation about a possible "turning point". . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Aug 1 #48

By that chart, shouldn't we already be in a recession? KPN Aug 1 #60

You can't really tell that by the chart since it doesn't track monthly revisions. Wiz Imp Aug 1 #64

Wisdom of the Ancients: If circles and arrows have to be drawn on a chart for you to find... Hugin Aug 1 #21

Sorry about your jobs folks but did you hear about the new Ballroom? underpants Aug 1 #30

It'll have a big shiny disco ball and gilded corners. Hugin Aug 1 #38

Trump's tariffs, anti-immigration agenda and disrespect to other nations will break the American economy. Doodley Aug 1 #31

Likely Rebl2 Aug 1 #32

Long story short FakeNoose Aug 1 #42

Great gif! 🤣 ShazzieB Aug 1 #70

Ughh, look at the headlines at finance.yahoo.com. And S&P 500 down 1.6% 1136 AM ET progree Aug 1 #50

Maddow Blog-U.S. job growth turns cold as Trump's agenda takes its toll on the economy LetMyPeopleVote Aug 1 #51

Remember ADP reported much less jobs. FormerOstrich Aug 1 #52

ADP is only counting "private sector" jobs (using their payroll subscribers as the survey source) BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #61

Not in July. ADP reported 104,000 private sector jobs on Wednesday progree Aug 1 #67

'Brutal' job report leaves experts reeling: 'Hard to overstate how bad' LetMyPeopleVote Aug 1 #53

He'll blame Biden Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Aug 1 #54

6 Of Last 7 Months Job Growth Has Failed To Keep Up With Population Growth DallasNE Aug 1 #55

Our new Golden Age speak easy Aug 1 #58

KA-BLAM! BlueWavePsych Aug 1 #59

No worries. Turbineguy Aug 1 #62

See #63 just below you /nt progree Aug 1 #65

President Trump says he will fire BLS commissioner after July jobs report disappoints progree Aug 1 #63

"Seems like LBN OP material" BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #66

Yeah, I figured. As soon as I saw my yellow "My Posts" light lit up, I immediately thought, ruh roh, progree Aug 1 #68

CNBC's breaking banner BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #69

Not only do they do these "First Friday" job numbers, they do CPI and PPI (wholesale) inflation, Productivity, progree Aug 1 #71

Kugler resignation posted about 15 minutes before your post BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #73

"Kugler resignated posted about 15 minutes before your post" - yeah I figured that, but thought progree Aug 1 #74

When using a " and a ( or ) BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #83

Thanks :) Yes, I run into that all the time, and do the same thing usually -- stick in a space progree Aug 1 #85

I know the feeling BumRushDaShow Aug 1 #87

I wish they'd give us a choice about using AI, but no, every time I do a Google search progree Aug 2 #89

I now frequently switch to Bing (M$'s search) BumRushDaShow Aug 2 #90

Yes, it would be nice not to have AI fill up half the first page. Mostly what I'm trying to do is prevent the AI search progree Aug 2 #96

Not Surprised OhioTim Aug 1 #82

Absolutely dismal and expected. kyburbonkid Aug 1 #86

Biggest Job Revisions Since 2020 Expose Pitfall of Economic Data progree Aug 2 #88

U.S. Is Trimming Back Its Collection of Consumer Price Data mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2 #93

Kick orangecrush Aug 2 #95

Checking against private sources sounds smart, but warning: they normally vary a great deal from the BLS numbers progree Aug 2 #97

The black unemployment rate (7.2%) is the worst since the pandemic-era October 2021 progree Aug 3 #98