Mike Johnson's Slim House GOP Majority Expected to Shrink This Week

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Source: Newsweek

Published Sep 08, 2025 at 11:49 AM EDT Updated Sep 08, 2025 at 5:26 PM EDT


Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw, the Democratic nominee in Virginia's special election on Tuesday, is being predicted by pundits to be victorious and fill late U.S. Representative Gerry Connolly's seat—a result that would narrow House Speaker Mike Johnson's already razor-thin GOP majority and complicate the chamber's ability to pass party-line measures.

"We feel good," Walkinshaw told Newsweek via phone on Monday. "We feel like we've run a strong campaign, [there's] a lot of energy. We've had huge getting-out-the-vote rallies over the weekend and knocked on more than 5,000 doors just this weekend, getting a great response from voters." Newsweek reached out to Johnson's office via email for comment.

Why It Matters

The anticipated Democratic pickup in the Virginia special election is significant because the House's current balance leaves Johnson with very little room for defections on party-line votes. Each vacancy or special election outcome could change how easily or how difficult it will be for the GOP to advance its agenda, including stopgap funding measures ahead of a pending government funding deadline at the end of September.

The current House makeup includes 431 seated members, with Republicans holding 219 seats and Democrats holding 212. A Walkinshaw victory would shrink the number of defections Johnson and his party could afford to two rather than the current three. This will also be the first special election held since Congress passed President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, essentially starting a countdown of massive campaigning for both parties' members ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/speaker-mike-johnson-gop-majority-special-election-2126337