Two Signs That Democrats Flipped Trump Supporters on Tuesday [View all]
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The most important exit poll question for evaluating the makeup of the electorate is how people say they voted in the last election. By this measure, the New Jersey and Virginia electorates this year were more Democratic-leaning than in 2024: Overall, exit poll respondents said they supported Kamala Harris last year by eight percentage points in New Jersey and by nine points in Virginia, compared with Ms. Harris’s actual six-point wins in the states.
Although this suggests an impressive Democratic turnout, it also implies that turnout alone didn’t explain the decisive victory — because Ms. Sherrill and Ms. Spanberger won by 13 and 15 points.
Instead, the two Democrats won so decisively because they also flipped a crucial sliver of voters who said they supported Mr. Trump in 2024. Ms. Sherrill and Ms. Spanberger both won 7 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters, according to the exit polls.
It may not seem like much to flip 7 percent of Mr. Trump’s backers, but consider: When a voter flips, it adds one voter to one party and also deducts one from the other, making it twice as significant as turning out a new voter.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/upshot/election-turnout-trump-hispanics.html
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