Great respect for both men. It will be an interesting fight if it happens -- and it appears likely it will.
Usyk is not a big heavyweight in today's division. It's interesting, as he is bigger than Sonny Liston was, and when I was young, Liston was considered huge. Usyk has outstanding boxing skills, and above average punching power. This is partly because of his timing, and ability to hit opponents with punches they don't see coming. And his defensive skills in the ring are outstanding, as Anthony Joshua found out in their two fights. Add to that his top-level endurance, and you have an undefeated champion that it would be difficult to bet against.
Since moving up from cruiserweight, he has four fights at heavyweight. The first was a technical decision over Chazz Witherspoon, the nephew of Tim. Chazz had been in the top 15 of the division previously. I'd been at a couple of his fights. He was TKOed in a 2012 fight for a minor title, won a few, then was inactive for several years. When he came back, he had only fought low-level guys before Usyk. But at his best, Usyk beats Chazz, as they are at very different levels.
Then Usyk had a really tough time with Derek Chisora. He got hurt in the fight a few times, and Chisora's physical strength gave him a lot of trouble. But he pulled out a close win in the last two rounds. Next came the two fights with Anthony Joshua, both of which he outclassed his bigger foe. Joshua is a fine heavyweight, for sure, but he hasn't recovered mentally from his upset loss to Ruiz. In the months between their fights, I talked a lot with Tim Witherspoon, who would be the perfect trainer for Anthony. Tim did go to England to try to become Joshua's trainer, but didn't get the spot. Now, I'm not saying if Tim trained him -- mentally & physically -- he would have won the rematch. But he would have fought correctly, and had a real shot at it.
Fury is 6 inches taller, and has a seven inch reach advantage. He has solid ring skills. It's not a coincidence that he is undefeated. Those combine o make it hard for opponents to prepare for him, as he is unlike any other fighter. Since taking Manny Stewart's nephew as his trainer, he has become a much more aggressive fighter, making full use of his size.
Now, in training, if you do rounds on a 150 lb heavy bag, you get more tired than on a 100 lb bag, even with the exact same routine. (Thus, Rocky Marciano used a 250 lb heavy bag!) Fury knows that his opponents will tire faster than they anticipated going into the ring. That plays into the mental game. Add to that him running his mouth (!), and opponents ALWAYS want to punch his face. Easier said than done. Usyk might be the first to focus on his body. Yet there is a price to be paid when trying to get inside on this giant. Even if he just clinchesand leans on you, it wears you out. And having a taller opponent walk you backwards in clinches empties the gas tank. (Holyfield vs Tyson, first fight.)
Usyk has really good head movement. Tim would have had Joshua jab to his chest -- that makes the opponent stationary for a second, while bringing their head back into range. Fury has a good jab that he works to the body, which will be a problem for Usyk. He'll follow up on it, then push Usyk backwards. And Hill has taught Tyson how to use his full punching power coming forward. At the same time, Usyk is a highly intelligent fighter, and will use his ability to cut corners on the inside -- mocing to his right, I'd assume, rather than to his left. As a southpaw, that allows him the same positioning as Manny Paciquiao used in his fights. (Floyd took that away from Manny in the first two rounds, which is why Manny's fans were disappointed that it wasn't the fight they expected. Floyd countered with short, crisp right hands, timed perfectly. That makes the opponent hesitate to try their favorite move!)
I favor Fury, but you never know until that first bell rings what will unfold.
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