Democratic Primaries

Celerity

(54,597 posts)

25. 'And incumbents win reelection almost always.'

Fri Apr 26, 2019, 05:29 AM

Apr 2019

Only recently.

It was spotty before that, going way back to right after Andrew Jackson, only Lincoln (killed right after he won-re-election ), Grant, William McKinley (killed right after he won 2nd term ), Teddy Roosevelt (but lost in 1912 when he tried to re-gain the POTUS after a 4 year absence), and Wilson won re-election. Coolidge chose not to run as an elected incumbent.

Post FDR fails or non-runs:

Truman, chose not to run in 1952 (he won, barely, in 1948, but he was not an elected incumbent then)

Kennedy (never got a chance to run as incumbent )

LBJ, chose not to run as an elected incumbent in 1968

Ford, lost

Carter, lost

Bush Sr, lost

Clinton, Bush Jr, and Obama started paradigm change of 3 straight ones who completed 8 straight years.

hopefully we break that new string in 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Assuming you will vote for the nominee in the General either way would you rather [View all] jezebel321 Apr 2019 OP

I am wondering how much of Biden's support is fully dependent on the running assumption he jezebel321 Apr 2019 #1

A lot leftofcool Apr 2019 #2

I'm thinking I agree. I wonder if others start polling well against Trump or Biden slips against jezebel321 Apr 2019 #3

Well, that is what it is all about. BannonsLiver Apr 2019 #14

Not mine JustAnotherGen Apr 2019 #29

This is the way I am LEANING.... but I've not made a final decision hlthe2b Apr 2019 #4

I keep seeing this thought about only serving one term. But has he said that? jezebel321 Apr 2019 #6

Strong instinct. I TRULY believe Biden wants to set the country back on course... hlthe2b Apr 2019 #7

Is it ok to say I would feel so much better if he would say it? Part of my reluctance to back him jezebel321 Apr 2019 #8

I don't think we should handicap him going into a General election (assuming he does win nomination) hlthe2b Apr 2019 #13

I've also been very concerned about using that argument. MoonRiver Apr 2019 #43

Not to nitpcik, but Biden was born in 1942, while the orange moron was... GReedDiamond Apr 2019 #50

He said that yesterday and that is a negative dor me Raven123 Apr 2019 #33

Just a reminder of the priorities hlthe2b Apr 2019 #35

A country that was on the right course before Trump would not have elected Trump Raven123 Apr 2019 #37

That you would even make the comparison makes me wonder why you are here. hlthe2b Apr 2019 #44

you weren't satified with how Obama/Biden restored economy? AlexSFCA Apr 2019 #54

He should never say that. A lame duck presidency is a bad idea. Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #20

'And incumbents win reelection almost always.' Celerity Apr 2019 #25

Recently except for two ...most incumbents win another term. Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #39

'FDR on...only two that didn't win a second term.' Celerity Apr 2019 #42

It would be a big mistake tactically to say so drray23 Apr 2019 #34

We need a healthy competitive primary campaign, and then let the primary voters and caucus goers totodeinhere Apr 2019 #5

"Go with Biden because he is my preferred candidate AND he's the best choice to beat Trump" LongtimeAZDem Apr 2019 #9

lol, I should have put a 3rd choice up. Wasnt meaning to imply anything by it. nt jezebel321 Apr 2019 #10

NP; I got it :) LongtimeAZDem Apr 2019 #11

All these health epidemics, lung, kidneys, heart, childhood Hortensis Apr 2019 #12

Well not safe could elect Trump again. I can't imagine the horrors that await if this happens. Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #21

Yes. The horrors will include SCOTUS for ANY Republican Hortensis Apr 2019 #23

How about: wait till there has been a debate or two and see how the candidates handle them? n/t pnwmom Apr 2019 #15

A much better idea Andy823 Apr 2019 #16

I agree! We have such great candidates, some of whom are still barely known by the electorate. femmedem Apr 2019 #31

Yes a lot can change Andy823 Apr 2019 #45

If Repub Senate Allows drumph to be Convicted MarcA Apr 2019 #17

Pence Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #40

I don't feel like I'm taking a "chance" with my primary vote backtoblue Apr 2019 #18

I'm with you, Blue! If Joe is nominated I'll vote for him but I don't think he's a sure thing. hedda_foil Apr 2019 #57

WI too late to matter. but i would vote for the leader. IF i think they will win. pansypoo53219 Apr 2019 #19

Would I rather watch democracy soaked in petrol and kicked down a hill? For my PERSONAL vanity? Maru Kitteh Apr 2019 #22

Not voting in the poll because the wording is presumptuous. Kentonio Apr 2019 #24

slanted wording, so a bogus poll, 'safe choice' v. 'take a chance', that would earn an 'F' from 538 Celerity Apr 2019 #26

Too many things can happen by out primary-- like other primaries... TreasonousBastard Apr 2019 #27

Seeing Biden as the safe choice is also taking a chance. Demit Apr 2019 #28

a vote for BS is a vote for trump AlexSFCA Apr 2019 #30

I don't know why you believe that. Do you have polling data to that effect? totodeinhere Apr 2019 #48

I think Bernie people don't realize that he is not popular wasupaloopa Apr 2019 #52

I believe if Joe MFM008 Apr 2019 #32

Indeed. I think Harris would be more likely than warren as vp drray23 Apr 2019 #36

Buttigieg doesnt have a law degree, I keep seeing all these posts from various people saying he Celerity Apr 2019 #38

Just an example MFM008 Apr 2019 #46

lolol, Putie would have a FIT!!!! Celerity Apr 2019 #47

Actually the Constitution does not require that a SCOTUS justice have a law degree. totodeinhere Apr 2019 #49

I knew that, but in today's environment , he will not be judged as eligible from a Celerity Apr 2019 #53

oh, that's a hard one. Amimnoch Apr 2019 #41

Biden will not be the nominee. I think it is good that wasupaloopa Apr 2019 #51

what chance would I be taking? Skittles Apr 2019 #55

That's a false choice NastyRiffraff Apr 2019 #56

Lotta assumptions in there. shanny Apr 2019 #58