Supply shortage wave will roll from LA/SFO starting about May 25, reaching NYC about June 5. [View all]
Last edited Fri Apr 25, 2025, 12:11 AM - Edit history (2)
April 2: "Liberation Day"
April 2 night: Libation Night
April 3: Liquidation Day
April 9: Tariffs vs China imposed, quickly ratched up to 145%
Everything in transit is theoretically exempt but might get slowed down. Businesses did what they could to expedite in advance but it was limited.
Cargo Bookings for May are down 40% vs May 2024. Basically that is for orders that had to be placed after April 9. Takes about 45 days for order to go Chinese factory to dock to ship to ocean to LA to sit on dock. 55 days to get to NYC by ocean or add 10 days from LA to NYC by truck including lading and off lading.
April 10 + 45 days --> May 25.
April 10 + 55 days --> June 5
Timing of course is approximate, but expect there to be a period of about two weeks to go from sort of normal to noticeable spaces on shelves and another two weeks for it to become undeniable and much remarked on.
mahatmakanejeeves https://www.democraticunderground.com/1116100359
applegrove https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220265346
Paul Krugman cargo bookings graph reposted in bluesky:
The crash in container ships arriving at the Port of Los Angeles (busiest in US) depicted in this graph should hit in a few weeks, which means lost business for truckers and probably some empty shelves in stores.
— Nicholas Grossman (@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social) 2025-04-24T14:59:13.804Z
Unless something big changes, the problems should become more apparent in the summer.
A tender is a load offer from a shipper to a trucking company that is sent electronically. These are actual loads and are transmitted a few days before they are scheduled to be picked up. This is the most current and reliable indicator of market demand.
The white line is 2025 and has begun an ominous little dip:
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