Supply shortage wave will roll from LA/SFO starting about May 25, reaching NYC about June 5.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. This is a big point. These are not normal times, yet so many are sleepwalking.

There's a lot of brave talk in the media as if "just wait a few weeks and this will all settle out and we can get back to business as usual". A lot of tea leaf reading as to hints from Oval Office conversations leaked partially.

There will be fewer deals with countries than tRump is claiming are imminent. Japan was thought to be the first and now they are put off to June. The deals will be weak sauce, memorandums, letters of understanding, etc., which will be hyped to the heavens. They will at most provide excuses for climb-downs on some tariff taxes.

Even if tariff taxes were completely reversed in the next hour, the damage is already done. Orders and shipping are already down. Christmas goods are in jeopardy already. Businesses would not trust a reversal. Uncertainty rules the air. Trading partners do not trust the US now.

Hanging in the background are labour market disruptions and drastic government spending cuts.